My theory is that this should work for all sports, but it is definitely true and I have noticed success in NFL the past two seasons. I am wondering how this would play out in basketball as well. The most recent example of a very "easy" bet that I placed was during the power outage at the superbowl. In live betting i was able to get 49ers +3.5 +105 for the 3rd quarter. Now this seemed like a no brainer to me as the market price during halftime (before the kickoff return) was 49ers -3 -110 for the 3rd quarter.
So taking this live bet gives me a line that is 6.5 points better than the market value. The Ravens had already scored 7 points in the 3rd quarter when this bet became available. I booked this bet because I agree'd with the announcers' statements that this stoppage would kill the Ravens' momentum. The power outage clearly impacted the game and possibly resulted in the 49ers covering this bet. Was taking the 49ers here at +3.5 +105 a +EV play? The line was initially +4.5 -115 before I sold a point to reduce paying all that vig. Does anything change in the value of this play if I had already booked Ravens +3 -110 for the 3rd Quarter and am attempting to middle? Lastly, would the play have more value if it did not cross the 0 and moved from -10 to -4.5.
I've been very successful with live betting for the NFL, and I can think of numerous opportunities to beat the closing line in basketball due to the volatility of scoring. Middling also seems quite possible with this angle of thinking.
I look forward to some feedback from more experienced handicappers, surely there is a hole somewhere in my logic