1. 08-22-09 05:47 PM #1
    gamble4heisman
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    Measuring EV in correlated baseball runline parlays

    playing vanilla numbers and being allowed to parlay visitor runline (-1.5) with the over, what do you think the EV is of this playing this blind? Is it positive enough EV to play blind on every game?
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  2. 08-23-09 12:15 AM #2
    Igetp2s
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    I would say it is definitely more valuable on totals of 7.5 and 9.5, not nearly as much (if not at all) on 8.5
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  3. 09-08-10 12:47 PM #3
    George7904
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    Anyone have the answer to this? My local will take these. I just wish that I had known this earlier. Should I blindly bet them on totals lower than 7.5? My gut is telling me the answer is hell yes.
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  4. 09-08-10 12:54 PM #4
    IrishTim
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    Not as great as you would think. Look at a historical database for more information.
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  5. 09-09-10 04:22 AM #5
    Toples
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    total doesnt matter
    you can bet disregarding the total, and you will get 6.1 % ROI on total
    but generally you lose around 3% on run line
    all in all should be profitable if you're getting at lease -110 line on both totals and RL
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  6. 09-09-10 11:54 AM #6
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by gamble4heisman View Post
    playing vanilla numbers and being allowed to parlay visitor runline (-1.5) with the over, what do you think the EV is of this playing this blind? Is it positive enough EV to play blind on every game?
    These plays are -EV while playing vs 20-cent lines. There is a very small edge with totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 and any total above 11.5 while playing vs 10-cent lines.
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  7. 09-09-10 12:10 PM #7
    mjc257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    total doesnt matter
    The total absolutely does matter and 7.5 and 9.5 are the numbers you should focus on when betting these.
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  8. 10-27-10 06:54 PM #8
    A's Fan
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    would playing texas rangers -1.5 and over 5.5 be +ev here?
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  9. 10-28-10 01:08 AM #9
    Peregrine Stoop
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    Quote Originally Posted by A's Fan View Post
    would playing texas rangers -1.5 and over 5.5 be +ev here?
    yes, it would've been a nice one

    not all good plans work out
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  10. 10-28-10 05:31 AM #10
    RickySteve
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    .
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  11. 11-06-10 08:56 PM #11
    mister bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Data View Post
    These plays are -EV while playing vs 20-cent lines. There is a very small edge with totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 and any total above 11.5 while playing vs 10-cent lines.
    totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5. why these totals?
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  12. 11-06-10 09:30 PM #12
    horsiehung
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    what's the best way to learn about 'EV' stuff?
    i hope its ok to ask a beginner question like that here..
    I'M just so damn sick of payi0ng my bookie every week!!!!
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  13. 11-06-10 09:51 PM #13
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister bee View Post
    totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5. why these totals?
    The home team winning by one is the most frequent MOV. These totals correspond to the home team winning by one (4-3, 5-4, 6-5) while the game goes under.
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  14. 11-07-10 01:41 AM #14
    mister bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Data View Post
    The home team winning by one is the most frequent MOV. These totals correspond to the home team winning by one (4-3, 5-4, 6-5) while the game goes under.
    thanks data. i gotta believe "MOV" is margin of victory, although i've never actually seen it written liked that.
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  15. 11-07-10 01:46 AM #15
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister bee View Post
    thanks data. i gotta believe "MOV" is margin of victory, although i've never actually seen it written liked that.
    You got it. MOV is a fairly common abbreviation we use here.
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