Although baseball handicapping is my primary pursuit, I regularly read the poker articles in Gaming Today. The poker guys there are generally pretty sharp when it comes to odds and math angles - but in this article I believe the author commits a glaring logical fallacy/mathematical error in his calculation of drawing odds.
http://gamingtoday.com/articles/arti...e_card_s_worth
I realize it's rather basic stuff for those who frequent this forum, but is there any logical, mathematical justification for his adjusting the 4 outs (any trey) down to 3 outs on the basis that the unseen cards of the other players are likely to include one of the 4 treys in the deck. It seems to me that an unseen card is an unseen card, no matter where it is on the table. Isn't any specific, single card out of 52 possibilities a .0192 random shot no matter if you select from a full deck or only half the deck? Isn't that why you use the 2% estimate per out to begin with?
In his example, we've seen 5 cards, none of which is a trey. There are 4/47 remaining trey possibilities. The next single random card we see will carry a .0851 possibility of being a trey no matter where it comes from - the same if it comes from a remaining deck of 47 or a remaining deck of 1. No?