1. 08-21-09 09:23 PM #1
    The Bishop
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    Is this a +EV side?

    Tonight at halftime I jumped on

    TEN 2H +0.5 -110
    DAL 2H ML -110

    Is this profitable longterm and how close is it?

    I figure the push percentage in the second half would be over 9.1%, especially in NFLX, but I don't have the numbers to back it up. It seems like it would be nearly impossible to come up with a perfect number because of the differing game line and halftime score for each game, but does anyone have an approximation?
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  2. 08-21-09 09:52 PM #2
    Reload
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    Welcome, Bishop!

    I would say there has to be at least a small +EV there. Like you, I do not have the numbers to back it up but at full vig on both sides it would only have to happen 1 out of 20 times to break even. I would think the chances are greater than that.

    Good luck this season!
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  3. 08-21-09 10:04 PM #3
    The Bishop
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    Obviously that safety assures that this won't hit, but the best I can do is win and push (it's a side AKA half middle), so breakeven should be 1/11.
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  4. 08-21-09 11:00 PM #4
    Pancho sanza
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    depends on the score at halftime.
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  5. 08-22-09 12:25 PM #5
    Justin7
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    When you're playing this middle, you can solve mathematically what you need to win. Your bet is basically: Will the second half be tied, risking 100 to win 1000.

    At 9%, this is marginal.
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  6. 08-22-09 01:48 PM #6
    The Bishop
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    When you're playing this middle, you can solve mathematically what you need to win. Your bet is basically: Will the second half be tied, risking 100 to win 1000.

    At 9%, this is marginal.


    Right, that's where I got the 9.1% in my OP. Obviously wouldn't do this in a game tied at half or anything that dumb, but I figured at 14-10 it was worth a shot. Apparently not as +EV as I thought. Thanks.
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  7. 08-22-09 01:49 PM #7
    The Bishop
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    As a side note, how long does this "your post will not appear until approved by a mod" business last?
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