1. 01-29-13 07:11 PM #1
    legendary1
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    Soccer Theory

    Knowing "system" is a taboo word around here, I would like to discuss an idea I had. In soccer moneyline betting, most teams, including favorites, are given + odds. My idea is to bet on all of the favorites that are given - odds at home, and weight the amount wagered towards the overwhelming favorites, with the idea that teams that fit this criteria will very rarely lose.
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  2. 01-29-13 08:39 PM #2
    donkson
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    no.
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  3. 01-29-13 10:49 PM #3
    tto827
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    Every bet you make is juiced, to make money you have to find which side has value, and its always different, or it doesn't even exist for some wagers. Hence why systems do not work.
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  4. 01-30-13 06:37 PM #4
    littlezola
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    This is wild on a number of levels.
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  5. 01-30-13 06:47 PM #5
    easyliving
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    horrible idea as because your betting - favs the juice will get to you and you need to be hitting at a very high rate to profit.
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  6. 01-30-13 07:10 PM #6
    littlezola
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    ......and not just that, the whole idea is built around the assumption that the markets are completely inefficient when dealing with probabilities for favorites at home, as if an opportunity like that wouldn't have been hammered out of existence at the dawn of time.

    I've actually read the original post about 10 times because I keep thinking I am missing something.
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  7. 01-31-13 01:00 AM #7
    HUY
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    Quote Originally Posted by legendary1 View Post
    Knowing "system" is a taboo word around here, I would like to discuss an idea I had. In soccer moneyline betting, most teams, including favorites, are given + odds. My idea is to bet on all of the favorites that are given - odds at home, and weight the amount wagered towards the overwhelming favorites, with the idea that teams that fit this criteria will very rarely lose.
    What a horrible "idea".
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  8. 01-31-13 06:26 AM #8
    jumpsquat
    ako ko naidje jebiga...
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    http://networkedblogs.com/BBy7A

    the idea might not be so horrible after all...
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  9. 01-31-13 08:08 AM #9
    brettd
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    Your idea actually has a little merit. You will lose money much more slowly betting big home faves in many soccer leagues as you would with other bet types.

    But as to breaking into +EV territory, you will not achieve this just blindly betting this angle.
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  10. 01-31-13 03:21 PM #10
    littlezola
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    "all home bets at -odds" is the original parameter - within that large an array of games there are naturally some +EV - but let's not get carried away here.
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  11. 01-31-13 08:01 PM #11
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    horrible idea as because your betting - favs the juice will get to you and you need to be hitting at a very high rate to profit.
    If he is not chasing the steam of course. Otherwise, your statement is very true.
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