Originally Posted by
Waterstpub87
Depending on your belief about the objectives of the Odds makers, you could have one of two answers.
1. If you believe the objective of the odds makers is to come up with the most accurate line, forgoing a balanced marketplaces, you will are attempting to out model the odds makers. Your model will most likely deviate from their model, and you are attempting to have more accurate predictions that the odds makers.
2. If you believe the odds makers are trying to come up with the number that will maximize the balance of action, and reduce the risk of the books, you are trying to out pick the public. Much simpler a task.
If you are consistently coming up with numbers that differ significantly from the line (everyone of your predicted spreads in points off in NBA) you are most likely doing something wrong. In the past, modeling NBA and NFL totals, 65% or so of my projected totals were within
3 points of the opener. I only bet games which I found to be off more then 5 points, so it hardly spit out 400 games a year. Baseball would be different.