[million2one]

How can I convert the line odds to the probability that a given team will win.
i.e. If Miami Heat are favored by 5 points what is the probability of them winning?
I am referring to my own capping and the line that I create not necessary the game line.

How can I do this for all major sports, I have an algorithm that I use for all sports and it gives me a game line, puck line, run line. But I am wondering, for example, if my line says the Philadelphia Phillies should be favored by -0.587 runs what probability should I give them of winning.

I have always bet against the point spread in the NBA and have a success rate of about 55%. I would like to start using the concept of expected value in my handicapping and try to beat the money lines.

I appreciate all the intelligent folks here and hope I have made myself clear.
Thank you so much for you help.

[EXhoosier10]

negative odds:
-200 means spend 200, win 100. 200/(200+100) = 66.6% chance of favorite winning
-150 means spend 150, win 100. 150/(150+100) = 60.0% chance of favorite winning

to test this, imagine winning 6 times and losing 4 times @ -150 odds . That's +600 and - 600, which adds to 0 profit. Hence winning 60% of the time at -150 is breakeven.

positive odds:
+200 means spend 100, win 200. 100/(200+100) = 33.3% chance of dog winning

[million2one]

Thanks EX but I understand how to figure out the probability given the money line.
My question is basically how do I come up with a money line given the point spread or run line or puck line.

I create my own spread for each sport based on some key variables.
How do I convert my spread into a money line or probability of a win.

There may be no answer to this question but thank you for taking the time to read.

[million2one]

For example, suppose my algorithm tells me that the Philadelphia Flyers will on average win by -1.22 pucks, what percent chance should I give them of winning?

Is there a standard conversion in the industry, that converts from game line to money line, etc.

MM

[tto827]

For example, suppose my algorithm tells me that the Philadelphia Flyers will on average win by -1.22 pucks, what percent chance should I give them of winning?

Is there a standard conversion in the industry, that converts from game line to money line, etc.

MM

There is no standard, but if you just look at lines, you should be able to find an average of what a line equates to in terms of the ML. To answer your first question (how likely is it that a team favored by x points wins), you would need to know the error/standard deviation/all that fun stat stuff to be able to calculate the win %.

[EXhoosier10]

ya, i definitely didn't read your question all the way through, my bad. I second everything tto827 said

There is no standard, but if you just look at lines, you should be able to find an average of what a line equates to in terms of the ML. To answer your first question (how likely is it that a team favored by x points wins), you would need to know the error/standard deviation/all that fun stat stuff to be able to calculate the win %.

[million2one]

Thank you that makes sense.
I will make my own conversion factor based on what I see on average in the game/money lines.

[LT Profits]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

[million2one]

Wow that is perfect, thanks LT.
I see this is only for basketball and football.
Any such thing exist for MLB and NHL?

[LT Profits]

Wow that is perfect, thanks LT.
I see this is only for basketball and football.
Any such thing exist for MLB and NHL?

Not that I know of and truth be told, it is not 100% accurate for foots/hoops because it gives no regard to the game's total. But at least it gets you in the ballpark.