1. #1
    gohabsgo
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    math question regarding hockey lines

    How would calculate a line (based on Pinny lines) for a team to win in REG + OT (Shootout not included).

    Lets take the columbus-Phoenix game on wednesday. Columbus is +134 and Phoenix -145.

    Knowing that 12-13% of the games are going in shootouts what would be the lines for each team to win in REG + OT?

    I'm doing this because this is how lines are working here in canada with state sports betting. And i'm feeling some of their lines are way off sometimes.

    Thanks!
    Last edited by gohabsgo; 01-22-13 at 10:14 PM.

  2. #2
    gohabsgo
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    Oh and i would use this to calculate the percentage of winning for each team.

    http://0vigcalc.150m.com/calc.htm

  3. #3
    gohabsgo
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    I'll go at it:

    Line for columbus to win in REG + OT should be:

    0.419 (prob of columbus to win the game) X 0.88 (chances that the game will finish in REG+OT) = 0.3682

    1/0.3682 = 2.7159 -1 = 1.7159 X100 = 171,59

    Line should be +171.59

    makes sense or not?

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohabsgo View Post
    I'll go at it:

    Line for columbus to win in REG + OT should be:

    0.419 (prob of columbus to win the game) X 0.88 (chances that the game will finish in REG+OT) = 0.3682

    1/0.3682 = 2.7159 -1 = 1.7159 X100 = 171,59

    Line should be +171.59

    makes sense or not?
    I don't think that's right because Columbus would win some of the shootouts. If you want to assume that shootouts are truly a 50% proposition, multiply by .94 instead of .88? That is probably a dangerous assumption though.

  5. #5
    gohabsgo
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I don't think that's right because Columbus would win some of the shootouts. If you want to assume that shootouts are truly a 50% proposition, multiply by .94 instead of .88? That is probably a dangerous assumption though.
    thanks for your input

    Who's winning the shootout is not important here. If the game goes in shootout i lose my bet regardless who wins the shootout.
    I want to calculate the line for columbus to win in REG + OT (shootout not included)

  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohabsgo View Post
    thanks for your input

    Who's winning the shootout is not important here. If the game goes in shootout i lose my bet regardless who wins the shootout.
    I want to calculate the line for columbus to win in REG + OT (shootout not included)
    Right but the possibility of a shootout win is incorporated in Pinny line. If you multiply by .88, that's like saying Pinny line has 0% of Columbus shootout win. I think.

  7. #7
    gohabsgo
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Right but the possibility of a shootout win is incorporated in Pinny line. If you multiply by .88, that's like saying Pinny line has 0% of Columbus shootout win. I think.
    Your right, i should use pinny lines to win in regulation ( the problem is that they do not include the 5 min OT)
    Reg time lines for this game are +140, -152

    .40856 (odds of columbus winning in regulation are lower then the one of winning the game) X 0.88 = 0.3595

    1/0.3595 = 2,7816

    +178 versus +171 with the other method

  8. #8
    gohabsgo
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    This does not make sense.
    PM sent to ganchrow!

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohabsgo View Post
    Your right, i should use pinny lines to win in regulation ( the problem is that they do not include the 5 min OT)
    Reg time lines for this game are +140, -152

    .40856 (odds of columbus winning in regulation are lower then the one of winning the game) X 0.88 = 0.3595

    1/0.3595 = 2,7816

    +178 versus +171 with the other method
    I think you were closer the first time with full game lines. Another possibility is applying the fully game probability to the 12%. So in this case, .419 * 12 = 5.03, so multiply by .9303?

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