Originally Posted by
GELATINOUS CUBE
Well you are looking at two different outcomes to an event.
Budgelisa vs. Shittake goes over 2.5
and
Bund v Shit goes over 3.
So just take the 3, cuz You'll get +200 at least, and if it goes 2-1, you'll push.
Hold on... Soccer totals, on avg are a bell curve. 50% they go under 2.5, or 1, or 2 total. 50% goes 3 or 4 or 5+, about 33% 3 and 17% 4 or more.
So 50% of the time you lose that over 2.5 or over 3 bet.
33% you'd push on the ov3... .33(push or x) + .17(money line over 3) is greater than or equal to .33(money line over 2.5) + .17(money line over 2.5)
Simplified, you are asking an inequality question:
Which is more? .66(x) + .33(x(ml ov3) > (xmlov2.5)
where x is your amount bet and ml is the european conversion value for you're money line, for ov 2.5 and over 3.
Keep in mind you'll lose this bet 50% based on natural odds.
Of course in a real sportsbook, you'll never see an over 3, so its a moot point.