1. 12-20-12 12:42 PM #1
    Sawyer
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    Woud you bet this Polish Middle?



    "Team B" is favored over Team A by 11 points. (European Basketball)

    By shopping around, you were able to find these prices.

    A Team +9.5 +165
    B Team -10.5 -110

    You have 2387.43$.

    You have two options.

    1. You can make a polish middle bet for %11 (by risking 1000$ on Team-A and 1387.43$ on Team-B)

    You win 262.57$ if you had risked 2387.43$. You win as long as Team-B does not win by exactly 10 points. If Team-B wins by 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 points or 11+, you win. If Team-A wins, you win again. If B Team wins by exactly 10 point, you lose both bets though.

    2. You pass. No bet.

    Would you bet this polish middle?
    Last edited by Sawyer; 12-20-12 at 12:46 PM.
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  2. 12-20-12 12:45 PM #2
    Peregrine Stoop
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    seems you should create a push chart

    The original gift basket giver, Wong's Sharp Sports Betting, teaches how
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  3. 12-20-12 12:46 PM #3
    Miz
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    Is $2335 your entire bankroll? If yes, I pass. If not, then how big is the player's entire bankroll?

    Agree that push chart is the starting point. But staking amount is also important
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  4. 12-20-12 12:48 PM #4
    Sawyer
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    No, no, this is not your whole bankroll amount. Your bankroll is 60,000$ approximately. (x25 of the stake)
    2387$ (%4) is just the stake you risk on that game But stake is only example, it can be any amount.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 12-20-12 at 12:59 PM.
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  5. 12-20-12 12:49 PM #5
    Robber
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    Definitely go for the polish middle
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  6. 12-20-12 12:53 PM #6
    Miz
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    OK, so overbetting is out of the picture. Yes you bet it, provided that the probability for a "push" or landing on 10 is far below 1 in 10. It is league specific, and all that jazz. If you calculate the odds of landing on 10 to be, say 4% or so, then go for it.
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  7. 12-20-12 12:58 PM #7
    Sawyer
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    In addition,

    Let's update Question this way. Would you bet this polish middle and at which % of your bankroll? We discussed it this example with friends of mine, like to hear your ideas too.
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  8. 12-20-12 01:19 PM #8
    Miz
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    I haven't worked in all the vig etc, but I went this way. Feel free to disagree or comment. First you stand to make 11%, so the line you can get is ~ -810 or so. For arguments sake, let's say you calculate that there is an 8% chance that it falls on 10. So you think the fair line ought to be about -1150. On heavy favs when there is a significant edge, the kelly stake is large. Larger than my comfort zone. I get something like a 3.4% edge and a 27% kelly stake, but without spending too much time on the vig etc. I'd say you could lay the 4% wager and feel fine about it. In fact, you may go up to 8%. Those middles don't show up that often I wouldn't think.

    this was all back-of-the-envelope. If it were real money, I might check the math a few times lol. Anyway, I'd say 4% works for sure.
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  9. 12-20-12 01:26 PM #9
    CHUBNUT
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    Its ironic that you start a thread like this after recently starting a thread " tactics to avoid limits"

    Good luck with getting 1K on Euro Basketball at a silly price and then stay under the radar.
    Maybe you dont bet the way you post on here your posts on the subject of bet expectation leave a lot to be desired.

    Austin 7 has cautioned me on several occasions for attacking posters and being negative but giving inexperienced bettors an unrealistic impression of sports betting markets is unforgivable. Its one thing to hypothesize on a fictitious situation and there's no doubt I and others enjoy the challenge but these posts should be made clear that they are not pertaining to the real world of betting.
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  10. 12-20-12 01:47 PM #10
    Miz
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    I took it just as a hypothetical. It is obviously skewed for the example. It is still interesting to work through it, and to read how others might approach it.
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  11. 12-20-12 02:17 PM #11
    Blax0r
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    I think I'm being slow.

    How can we answer this question without figuring out the probability of B winning by 10 exactly? And I don't think we can calculate that figure based on the information given so far...
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  12. 12-20-12 02:29 PM #12
    Miz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blax0r View Post
    I think I'm being slow.

    How can we answer this question without figuring out the probability of B winning by 10 exactly? And I don't think we can calculate that figure based on the information given so far...
    You are correct. I assumed an 8% chance just for arguments sake.
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  13. 12-20-12 02:40 PM #13
    Sawyer
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    Yes, it was a hypothetical example. However, time to time I catch opportunities like this. Chubnut, you're living in a poor africa country I guess? Our world views are completely different. I'm living in a much different place then yours. Laying even 2-3k should not be a problem..but I don't know about you. You should not compare yourself with me either, I'm a Pro Handicapper & Trader. My stuff, network&equipment kicks azz.

    My opinion is,

    I don't bet polish middles often but I would bet this polish middle on any given day. Maximum %5 or %7.5 of the bankroll though. I would bet even if % was 8 or 9. But I would not bet if it was below 5, definetely.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 12-20-12 at 02:48 PM.
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  14. 12-20-12 02:42 PM #14
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blax0r View Post
    I think I'm being slow.

    How can we answer this question without figuring out the probability of B winning by 10 exactly? And I don't think we can calculate that figure based on the information given so far...
    You can't exactly, but consider the push probabilities for college basketball. It shouldn't be that far off. Any reasonably similar number indicates that you should go for the polish middle.
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  15. 12-20-12 02:56 PM #15
    wrongturn
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    The push rate on -11 is about 4% in NBA so I assume it is about the same for European basketball. It is definitely +EV for the middle. I don't use Kelly. I would simply put roughly one unit or two on each side.

    Of course for one unit or two, the best play should be on +9.5 +165 and be done with it.
    Last edited by wrongturn; 12-20-12 at 03:06 PM.
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  16. 12-20-12 03:51 PM #16
    RonPaul2008
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    +55 cents if it doesn't hit 10. I know if this was the NBA I would pound that in a heartbeat. Anyhow, why don't you check if it would be a scalp with buying points? Also, is only 1 side off market? If so, consider only pounding that one or put more on that side.
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  17. 12-22-12 01:00 PM #17
    CHUBNUT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Yes, it was a hypothetical example. However, time to time I catch opportunities like this. Chubnut, you're living in a poor africa country I guess? Our world views are completely different. I'm living in a much different place then yours. Laying even 2-3k should not be a problem..but I don't know about you. You should not compare yourself with me either, I'm a Pro Handicapper & Trader. My stuff, network&equipment kicks azz.

    My opinion is,

    I don't bet polish middles often but I would bet this polish middle on any given day. Maximum %5 or %7.5 of the bankroll though. I would bet even if % was 8 or 9. But I would not bet if it was below 5, definetely.
    Your delusional but harmless I suppose. Happy new year.
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  18. 12-23-12 03:31 AM #18
    Jontheman
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    Given you're happy to take the risk of a 2300 loss then why bother covering the +EV side at all? - you're just burning +EV and you've 1/2ed your maximum loss by not covering.
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  19. 12-23-12 04:18 AM #19
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jontheman View Post
    Given you're happy to take the risk of a 2300 loss then why bother covering the +EV side at all? - you're just burning +EV and you've 1/2ed your maximum loss by not covering.
    Which side is the +EV?

    Joe.
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  20. 12-23-12 04:18 AM #20
    HUY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    I'm a Pro Handicapper & Trader. My stuff, network&equipment kicks azz.
    Post of the year?

    (A few weeks ago you made a big deal of how you managed to get 1.2K on a seriously outdated Europa League line, so I would put you in the minor leagues of sports betting.)
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  21. 12-23-12 08:03 AM #21
    Jontheman
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    Quote Originally Posted by u21c3f6 View Post
    Which side is the +EV?

    Joe.
    Generally easy enough to work out - one of those lines will be MILES off the market consensus. The only time to bet both is if the consensus lies somewhere between the two and they both have +EV against it; you'd just bet them both independently as +EV bets. They just by chance happen to form a Polish middle.
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  22. 12-28-12 05:13 AM #22
    princecharles
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jontheman View Post
    Generally easy enough to work out - one of those lines will be MILES off the market consensus. The only time to bet both is if the consensus lies somewhere between the two and they both have +EV against it; you'd just bet them both independently as +EV bets. They just by chance happen to form a Polish middle.

    This is sharp.

    But the OP has THIS opportunity in front of him, so he's looking for a case specific answer/opinion.

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  23. 07-08-14 04:27 PM #23
    lamichaeljames
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    bump for the comedy..
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  24. 07-09-14 02:15 AM #24
    byronbb
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    If pinnacle deals drop downs for this market you can easily figure the push % for this matchup.
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  25. 07-10-14 05:21 PM #25
    smoke a bowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blax0r View Post
    I think I'm being slow.

    How can we answer this question without figuring out the probability of B winning by 10 exactly? And I don't think we can calculate that figure based on the information given so far...
    Common basketball knowledge is enough to know that the 10 can't be worth close to 10%(probably worth 3- 4% which makes this an obv play to polish with no other info/capping involved.
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  26. 07-10-14 05:24 PM #26
    smoke a bowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miz View Post
    You are correct. I assumed an 8% chance just for arguments sake.
    Miz no Basketball point in any league is worth even close to 8%. Most push rates in basketball are about 4% on sides give or take.
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  27. 07-11-14 12:55 PM #27
    Poogs
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    Max bet the off market line and buy back as much as you want on the other side. Then cry when it lands on 10. EZ game
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  28. 08-09-14 05:06 AM #28
    ace888
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    polish middles are not different from regular bets so %2 of the bankroll would be okay
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