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I was given this equation to produce a 'read' of advantage, and value of wager unit size. I am of the opinion I am being "put on" The result is incomprehensible to me. Knowledgeable individuals please comment.

[+715/-785 (-70) [143^157 (14)] +47.6% / -52.3% (5.2)]

[Justin7]

Looks like junk. I can't imagine why you'd have a ^157 in the equation.

Was there an explanation given with it?

[Dark Horse]

I know where you saw it. The initial bet sizing made sense (with 8 units per RL play being the highest), but that later formula is beyond me. I did a total for the RL plays earlier, and he was up more than 130 units at the time (Pinny closing lines), before this formula was introduced. Documented. So I wouldn't worry about that formula. The RL bets are based on a valid method.

The correct copy and paste:
[+715/-785 (-70) [143 ^5^ 157 (14)] +47.6% / -52.3% (5.2)]

[Dark Horse]

I see the ^5 was added later. In any case, if anyone wants to decipher it, it goes along with this: 11 plays with projected ratio: 8/11 72.7%

The person in question does know his baseball, and has pointed a lot of readers in the right direction, but the bet sizing seems very 'creative'.

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Rangers+115 RL
Yankees+125 RL
Tigers+158 RL
Phillies-121 RL
Cardinals-129 RL

Royals+265 ML
Diamondbacks+110 ML
COL/CINCI+110 UNDER 4.5 / 5innings


projected ratio: 5/8 62.5%


Here is the equation that goes along with this card. It is based on value and advantage play.


[+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)]

I am not trying to debunk anyone. I said in the first post I thought I was being "put on" only because the person will not elaborate on the subject any further. I would like to see it worked out in order to gain insight and knowledge. 294.1 ^3^ 89.1 does not make sense. Any Ideas?

[Dark Horse]

Unless I'm missing something this is not an equation. Where is the = or the x? This is just a straight number.

[Dark Horse]

Just collecting some info on the topic.

for example, on Sun, add up all the dog odds, that is where the +833 came form, the fav odds, -250 is the number

[+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)]

I was able to figure out the +833 and -250 numbers previously, but where did [294.1^3^89.1 (205)] come from?

also, i assumed that the +76.7%/-23.2% (53.2) comes from the difference between 100% max and 76.7%, but where did 76.7% come from?

Good question...it's derived from the (hidden) 383(294+89) then compounded into %'s] then decimaled minus to 53.2] the read then becomes substantial...

divide ^3^ into +883=294.1 ] into -250=89.1 ] 205 thus, becomes the difference. this is basic, depending on your comprehension level of math, and sheparding technique of applied formula's, you may continue for a more in-depth read, or accept the 'basic'..to continue:

+883 becomes 8.83
-250 becomes 2.50
+533 stays 533 exclude +
294 becomes 29.4
89 becomes 8.9
205 stays the same
+76.7% becomes 7.6
-23.2% becomes 2.3
53.2 becomes 53.2%

[dwaechte]

Seems like creative marketing to me.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Looks like he is trying to get the value on the dogs vs. On the favorites on two different days.

The first day he has 5 plays ranging in exact odds from -143 to -157 which is a difference in 14 cents. Then the total for taking the longshots would be +715, and the favs added up would be -785
then the profit percentage would be +47% on the dogs and -53% for the favs (and he went w/ the dogs), with a winning percentage/50/50 profit of 52 or 5.2 (on a scale of 1-10).

On day 2, he has 3 games ranging from +89 or a fav of -130 to +294 for a cent separation of 205. And a dog total for the 3 games of +883 and a fav total of the 3 games for -250. The payout is 76% if you took all the dogs (good value) or 24% if you went with the favs (pass) with a gross win percentage/50/50 return profit of 53.2

its basically just this dude handicapping and scribbling out his formula for value.

The main thing is it makes sense to him, to see if he goes with the favorites or with the underdogs, and where is the best value.

P.s. If any of you casinos need an oddsmaker, i'm in the job market. Just kidding.

Stumpdoucheus says: U let math teacha in u casino, u casino lose all it fukin money!

The -70 and the +533 are means or avgs.

The projected ration is his predicted win percentage, where he goes from the mean dog and fav ml to his final win % and his profit.

I guess won't play all 11 games or all 8 games, that is just used to calculate his win ratio.

I'll be back at 3 am to try to prove this equation.

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Gel- I have been away on a family 911 for a couple weeks. Thanks for the insight, makes sense. - 1