Hello everyone,
Firstly, excuse me for my poor English.
I see many bettors trying to find out who the opening line or closing line is sharper.
I think it must be assumed that the bookmakers receive odds of an compagny specializing in betting solutions like Betradar . After bookmakers receive the odds, they adjust depending on the style of bet to their customers (objective is to equal bet on all sides). But let's be clear, they not adjust their odds 20% or 30% in one side. Their adjustment is minimal.
1) In this case, why the odds issued by the compagny is slightly wrong or false ?
My theory is relatively simple - and i think the simple is better -
If we make a giant backtest, we will find there is not much difference in terms of performance between the opening line and closing line.
We will say that the closing line is sharper than the opening line by 1-5% return better (return better and not positive return). I think I am not far from the truth.
In this case, if we take odds 10% or 15% better than the opening line regardless of the period, regardless closine line we will mathematically have a better return than the closing line.
In conclusion, IMO, the most important thing is not the closing line, this is the opening line + %age accordate to have a better return than closing line.
Thank you very much for your comments and sorry for my english.
Regards,
Chris