[Igetp2s]

Sorry if this is somewhere in the betting tools, but I couldn't find it. Could someone please explain how to calculate series prices, given the winning probabilities of each game.


Suppose the winning probabilities for team A is

Game 1) 56%
Game 2) 48%
Game 3) 53%

How would calculate Team A's chances of winning at least 2 out of 3?

Thanks for the help.

[maxdalury]

team a's chances of winning 2 out of 3 are:
the chances of winning all three : .56*.48*.53
the chances of winning the first two and losing the last: .56*.48*.47
the chances of winning the first one, losing the middle and winning the last: .56 * . 52 * .53
the chances of losing the first and winning the next two : .44*.52*.53

sum them all up

[Igetp2s]

OK, thanks

[skrtelfan]

This forum frowns on posting links to other sites and I've actually had posts busted which contained useful tools located on other sites that weren't located here, which is absurdly arrogant on the part of the SBR moderators IMO, but I suppose it doesn't violate the rules to mention that Stanford Wong's sports site contains a spreadsheet under "prop tools" where one of the tabs will let you calculate series probabilities. It's geared towards NBA playoffs but it's easy enough to engineer it for any sport by just manually typing in the percentages instead of point spreads, and for a series shorter than 7 games, just give the teams a 100% chance of winning the previous games, i.e. in your scenario, give one team a 100% chance of winning games 1 and 2 and the other a 100% chance of winning games 3 and 4.