Originally Posted by
chubber911
I'm sorry if I sounded condescending with my initial response. It was more of a general observation (one which obviously veteran cappers comprehend), in regards to individuals of the mind set "oh, Jays never win at New Yankee Stadium".
I'm still trying to learn how to quantify HFA, myself, and I'm somewhere in between assigning a generic value and weighting the specific criteria. Initially, I had team winning % on my mind when I first entered this discussion, and not necessarily how HFA changes batting averages, WHIP, etc.
Lastly, you asked if I could explain and give examples about what I meant when I said "different stats converge at different rates". Please don't take my explanation as an insult, I'm just being thorough with this answer so there is no confusion. What I mean is: after x games, certain statistics are going to be much more reliable than others. After 10 games, there are probably several players whose batting averages aren't very close to their true estimation of a batting average. A batter could have been very hot and be hitting 20 for 45 at that point, but I don't think that means you can expect them to be hitting over .400 going into the next game. A pitcher could have a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 6.50 after 3 games, and you'd probably agree that trying to quantify this pitchers ERA as such when capping a game isn't very accurate. That's what I meant when I said that quote. Sorry if this is obvious and I didn't answer your question.
I've been a poker player for years and play professionally, so I'm a person that loves to see very specific stats, but I'm also cynical about stats where I don't think I have enough data to be completely accurate. I have only been capping sports for less than a year, so there's lots I need to learn, but for better or worse, my habits from poker carry over to handicapping.