Originally Posted by
Professor1215
There have been many articles written about luck and I too, have thought about trying to factor luck into a model.
But if you think about it, there is no mathematical data that can be used to predict luck. There might be ways to analyze outcomes of games that could be argued luck decided, but generally speaking, luck is a random, naturally occurring phenomenon that can not be tracked or predicted.
That being said, I believe that if you try to incorporate luck into one of your models, the only thing you can do is hurt yourself.
I believe that if you are betting to win money in the long-term and look to take advantage of the market, luck is going to win you as many games as it is going to lose. You have to remember that of all of your plays, you are going to win some big, lose some big, win some close ones and lose some close ones. The only outcomes that luck is going to play a factor in are those close ones that come down to the last call, shot, etc.
Thoughts??