My degree is in electrical engineer so I have a math background but not good enough. Could use Insight...
I believe that I have a statistical model that can predict 58% of the time or great what the total score of two college football teams would be +/-7 points. For instance, on the North Texas/La Lafayette game my model came up with 47 points and the final score was 53 points. Vegas had the over under at 56 and so my model said to take the under.
Here is my question: If I truly am able to predict the outcome at a 58% certain using the standard line, using a teaser, how much does my probability go up and does it make sense? i.e. Of the 55 games this weekend my model says to bet 25 games because most of the are neutral. Tonight it says bet the Houston/SMU over 60 points. Which means my model is at least predicting 68 points or more. If I tease that 60 down to 53 points... what percentage do I have to hit to make up for the difference 65% or 70%...
I am not sure I worded the question, correctly... but I appreciate any response...