1. 10-12-12 09:03 AM #1
    chunk
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    Hypotheticals:

    Given: Major markets( American football and basketball---college and pro )
    Approx. 300 plays/yr
    Flat wagers-----for all you 1/2 and full kelly mo-fos that have the edge nailed down to the proverbial nat's
    ass.
    @ -110 odds (simplicity)
    Assume market efficiency? (ad nauseum)

    Win Rate/yr: Yr.1 55%
    Yr.2 59%
    Yr.3 53%
    Yr.4 62%
    Yr.5 53% Mean= 56.4% Median= 55% Range= 53-62%

    Obviously, this is a very simple hypothetical and may not be statistically significant for all of you stat geniuses, but in a sports betting context, should this guy expect a 42% win rate at some point or is it more likely that his arse whooping would be less severe?

    Bankroll has grown. Increase risk or hunker down?

    Does the annual consistency mean anything (yeah, I know that the numbers don't recognize seasons) or do you just disregard?

    What if you broke even for the next 3 years? My "instincts" tell me that in this context, the consistency should mean something.....no?
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  2. 10-12-12 12:33 PM #2
    hutennis
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    Just to be clear.
    Are you trying to find some kind of reassurance that your past results will continue into the future because the consistency of your past results should mean something?

    If thats what you want, I don't think you can find it. It's simply not there.
    What is there is old as world itself effort to search for pattern when there is none and assign meanings to meaningless stuff.
    We are hardwired to do that, it was must to have quality if the goal was to survive, not to be eaten by lions and pass genes to the next generation. It's been honed to perfection over last 250000 years or so and it is very hard to give up or get rid of.
    For the modern man it's pretty much useless and is nothing but a source of problems, confusions and losses.
    Last edited by hutennis; 10-12-12 at 12:36 PM.
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  3. 10-12-12 02:53 PM #3
    chunk
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    It's more a curiosity thing than reassurance. I tend to agree that you are probably correct about some of us being hardwired to believe the madness. Sometimes maybe some need a little nudge to keep things in perspective.
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  4. 10-12-12 03:00 PM #4
    MonkeyF0cker
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    You should expect that if there is not or is no longer an edge, the win rate will settle at around 50% in future wagers.
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  5. 10-12-12 04:26 PM #5
    statnerds
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    was there any appreciable CLV over the life of your plays?

    and is the time frame 5 years?
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  6. 10-12-12 04:50 PM #6
    chunk
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    Yes, 5 years. Don't keep records for CLV, but I am predominantly better off taking early lines.
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