 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
need advise on a large bet
ok so there is a bet i not only like but consider it an almost certainty 98% chance of hitting
the current line is -600 at other bookies and when it gets to my bookie shall hopefully be the same.
I am not really up on betting theory but what would be the %br for a bet like this?
Full Kelly: 86%
Good luck!
Joe.
Outside of fixing this match i'd doubt that your handicapping is correct with that big an edge on a favourite.Originally Posted by snufflyjoe
Not to be a jerk but you are dead wrong if you think there is a 98% success rate for a bet that is going off at -600
It is not uncommon for me to have some probabilities like this originate from a model early in the season.
I would recommend incorporating some type of strength of schedule adjustment. I would also recommend regressing certain statistics that your model is using.
You should never be betting amounts that are significantly more than other bets (unless you only plan on making a few bets a year instead of hundreds or thousands).
If you analyze the edge you perceive that you have, you are looking at a 14% edge. This is the same edge you would achieve by estimating a -110 bet has a 60% chance of winning.
Exp : You think Team A wins 98% of the time. The market (-600) says they win 85.71% of the time. Pretend you bet this game $100 to win $16.67 (-600) 100 times. If you win 98 of those bets, you get back $11,433. A profit of $1433.
You think team Z wins 60% of the time. The market (-110) says they win 52.38% of the time. Pretend you bet this game $100 to win $90.91 (-110) 100 times. If you win 60 of those bets, you get back $11,454. A profit of $1454.
The nice thing about betting Team A, is you have less variance if your perceived edge is true. If you bet 100 games where the actual chance of winning is 98% at a price of -600, you would need to lose 15 or more out of 100 to lose money, which has around a 58 million to 1 chance of occurring. However, I must agree with most of the others on this thread that I highly doubt a true 98% chance is being offered at -600. But, if you think you do, great. Just don't fall into the trap of loading up all you eggs in one basket, it is a sure recipe for losing eventually.
The key is to continually find edges, and spread your bankroll around evenly on each one at a 2%- 3% stake of your bankroll. This is how you conquer variance and keep your sanity.
To be fair, some gamblers have made a big score betting most of their stake on a few games and going on a "roll". But be forewarned, most who have tried this method of attack are living in shacks, and are up to their eyeballs in debt.
|
This post was nominated 1
time
. To view the nominated thread please click here.
People who nominated: Ellivennecq
|
How did you come to this conclution ?
theres a huge difference between these two situations
Not really. If I bet 1000 of these for the same amount, my return is about the same. My variance parameters are a little different, but it's about the same.
Just a simple bi-nomial distribution, although re-checking it i did miss a column. The true chances of a 98% chance occurring 85 or less times in 100 chances is apx. 598,802,000-1
Assume a 5% edge and bet accordingly. Even 5% might be too much, but I see you're over the head with this one so you might as well.
Alright ! but om not very Intersted in the answer, more how your calculation look like ??
Just ran the numbers through a binomial calculator.Alright ! but om not very Intersted in the answer, more how your calculation look like ??
At -600 I will take all your action all day long.
Pretty silly thing to offer without knowing what the bet is.
You think every thing priced at 85.71% would be to your advantage ?
It would appear that if the 98% certainty is a given, then this wager would be on a fixed fight.
Your risk approaches near zero if indeed the fight is fixed. So put half your bankroll on it and no more.
98% win odds typically involve only 2 individuals in a match or fight. If you are the patsy and just being set up to lose (which is why you are so sure about 98% number... hint) then you can fall back on the remaining half of your bankroll.
Last edited by zeppy; 10-01-12 at 06:44 PM.
I'd say if you're sure about it do it. I just got back into betting and have isolated a very simple way of making picks based only on the lines in my local paper. Sounds absurd but last week it was 6/6 in college and 6/6 in the pros. If anyone is interested in seeing what it shows for this weekend I will post the college picks Saturday and the pros Sunday . Can't do them earlier than that . Should I post them in this thread or other ? Thanks
I'd love to see this, you could put it in players talk, just be sure to include something in the title about your local paper lines, so that we can find it.
Ok thanks! I'll post them in the players talk saturday and Sunday
this should be %100 of roll bet
Reply With Quote