[chunk]

I, for one, knowing full well that I may be the only one in this place, would not put 100% of my faith in math alone. I can respect modelers that are successful, but are you guys really going to tell me that you go with the math at all times? Ummm....if you do........

[Dark Horse]

Ah the Mathmythicians... As long as they don't see that 1 and 1 can be 3, their bark is worse than their bite. A good friend of mine is a true math genius. Made millions with it. Just not in sports betting. And the math genius that could set anybody straight in this tank, well ..., he switched sides.

[trixtrix]

do you believe money is math and truly 100% nothing but math?

[LT Profits]

Not ALL math...only 99.2%.

[Darkside Magick]

your gut will win more...even science say people should listen to gut more

[Conan]

It is all math just sometimes the math guys don't add up all the numbers the intangibles like will to win and leadership that may sway your gut can be factored in to the math but are often overlooked due to the difficulty in quantifying these things.

[Dom177]

It is all math just sometimes the math guys don't add up all the numbers the intangibles like will to win and leadership that may sway your gut can be factored in to the math but are often overlooked due to the difficulty in quantifying these things.

I feel like people put too much emphasis on intangibles though. For instance, a lot of people yesterday were all over the Panthers because the Giants needed a late comeback and were playing on a short travel week, even though the plane ride from NY to Carolina really isnt that far. They neglected the fact that the Giants were 5-2 on the road their previous 7 games and are a dangerous team when their backs are up against the wall.

[smitch124]

I think that when you are talking about the long run (2000+ plays), the only way to be successful is to have a mathematical edge. Ganchrow had a great quote about it that I can't find anymore about crazy bounces, wild endings and other intangibles that get ironed out neatly over the long run.

[kilmerAsHolliday]

I'm trying to figure out what, exactly, isn't math?

[mcduggly]

I'm trying to figure out what, exactly, isn't math?

I have honestly thought about this before. I believe everything in life is related to percentages, ratios, etc.

[MonkeyF0cker]

There are two approaches to gambling: Math and guessing. I'll take math over guesswork every time.

[chunk]

Not ALL math...only 99.2%.

I would concede that this may not be too far from accurate, but it just seems to me that it isn't the end all. I do, however, have a healthy respect for the power of numbers.

[indio]

What exactly is the question of the original post? Math is the study of numbers, and is used in everything, so I don't understand what is being questioned?

Math is essential in bankroll management, risk assessment, and therefore is essential in estimating value. If my aim is to profit 5% return off of the total bets I make in a year, then I should be striving to place bets that I perceive are at least 5% to my advantage over the price I pay. For example, if I feel the Seahawks are value at +160 at home vs. Dallas, it's because I believe they have a better chance of winning than the 40.38% that would be needed for me to be 5% better than the 38.46% price I paid.

However, why I think Seattle is a good value play is due to feel. This feel is created by hundreds of intangibles, mostly by observations of game play, recent history, psychology, etc. With the conceding of a few exceptions, strictly math based handicapping is rarely enough due to the fact that it takes a LOT of situations to have the volume needed for a math based angle to start to have any reliability. But I'm sure some math based handicappers do just fine, and some feel handicappers do fine as well.

But when it comes to managing a bankroll and money (which is the most important part of all), you better know your math or you'll go broke.

[yak merchant]

"The" Math is always right. "My" math is often wrong or incomplete. I let my gut remove plays from the output of my model, but never to add plays to the model.

[antifoil]

yeah if you can come up with a way to quantify intangibles, want, and attitude you shouldn't use it gambling but sell it to baseball clubs for millions of dollars.

[zorba74]

Antifoil,

Are you a .9er?

[antifoil]

fukk that. never understood it. i started listening about at the beginning of last baseball season probably somewhere in the 40s.

sad it ended but he went to the club i am closest to geographically so that is kind of exciting even though i will never know what impact he will have.


oh i just got it. want gave it away. it didn't even notice. too bad you could have emailed in saying there are some nerds on a gambling forum trying to quantify want for a betting edge.

[zorba74]

Lol Antifoil.

WANT was a dead giveaway I would email in but unfortunately, like you said, all good things must come to an end. penetrating loved that show.

Good luck to your Stros bro.

[zorba74]

Interesting, my expletive got changed to "penetrating"; kinda cool actually.

[antifoil]

the best "tales of want" was the fat guy diving to catching the baseball being thrown up to the elderly lady, then saying "80 want"

[zorba74]

LMAO... Dude, not sure I can trump that one... instant classic.

Sorry to hijack the thread Chunk so I will add my two cents.

Math is unequivocally added value (trying to sharpen up myself) and while sports investing is becoming increasingly algorithmic, I believe there will always be a place for "fundamental" cappers who can also trade intelligently within the market place by capturing the best prices on their trades. A high risk quotient can be an adequate substitute for a math model. With all that said, wish I could model myself

[chunk]

No problem Zorba, the thread was meant to gather other thoughts rather than the constant drumbeat. I designed an application that I had to have someone else write as I don't have the expertise. I certainly would not equate it to the "models" that I hear about in here, but it works for me. I also tend to agree that fundamental and situational handicapping combined with the math is a decent approach. Maybe some of these guys have figured out a way to put some kind of "human element" into their models and quantify it, but if not, I can't imagine that it would be optimum to blindly take computer generated selections all of the time.

[Duff85]

Can make a perfect living by looking at nothing but the numbers.

[Avskum]

"The" Math is always right. "My" math is often wrong or incomplete. I let my gut remove plays from the output of my model, but never to add plays to the model.

You said it sir.
There is probably people who can calculate and predict almost any match just by the numbers. But I dont think theres a single person in this forum who has that knowledge.
Math is good for you, but observing teams is just as important.

[v1y]

There are two approaches to gambling: Math and guessing. I'll take math over guesswork every time.

lol fail.

Some things just can not be measured quantitatively, but only qualitatively.

[LT Profits]

lol fail.

Some things just can not be measured quantitatively, but only qualitatively.

But you still have to somehow find a way to quantify qualitative factors when making your own line. Even if its simply adjusting by half-point for each intangible, it is still math when you compare what your ultimate line is with the real line.

[v1y]

The fact that you must eventually quantify qualitative factors does not mean that "everything is math". The process of assessing qualitative factors is non-mathematical.

[kilmerAsHolliday]

How do you quantify 'human element/intangibles' without prior observation?

[josie88]

Math, with maybe one rare exception. If you had reliable way to know something about a team before everyone else...I'm thinking injuries or trades for example...but I would think the resources necessary to capitalize on info like that would make the effort questionable.

[antifoil]

the hardest intangible to try to cap what side jesus is favoring. do you look at what team prayed harder? do schools associated with a religious sect have more of a jesus edge?

does the jets get the jesus/tebow bump even though tebow is on the bench? does God see this as a betrayal?

[Avskum]

hahaha that cracked me up

[Professor1215]

In my opinion, I believe that everything in life is related in some way to math. If I had to "guess", I would say math plays a factor in 99%+ of everything that occurs. That being said, I also believe that there are very few things that are "All _____ and only _____".

So to answer your question, there are people who believe it is all math and only math. And while I see where you are coming from, no one will ever know if it's 100% math or not. I can tell you if it's not, it's probably at least 99%, haha.

Good luck.

[RonPaul2008]

What do you mean only math? If you don't define what you mean it's hard to say if someone is doing it.

[RonPaul2008]

But you still have to somehow find a way to quantify qualitative factors when making your own line. Even if its simply adjusting by half-point for each intangible, it is still math when you compare what your ultimate line is with the real line.

Who says you have to make your own line in order to gain a statistical advantage on a regular basis?

[chunk]

Who says you have to make your own line in order to gain a statistical advantage on a regular basis?

By implication, I happen to agree with the premise. I would venture to guess that most in here would disagree. I would be VERY interested to hear why not.