[jjgold]

Some of your most successful players are guys that study game films, it's tedious but works

No better way for a pure handicapper

[hutennis]

However, why I think Seattle is a good value play is due to feel. This feel is created by hundreds of intangibles, mostly by observations of game play, recent history, psychology, etc.

It's been argued around here many times, but I still have not got an answer to my question.
What makes you think that your feel is so much better than collective wisdom (feel) of the market
which observes the same play, analyzes the same recent history, considers same psychological angles etc?
Moreover, probability is extremely high that, collectively, market looks at and prices in some factors you don't even know exist thus making additional but unknown and not quantifiable contribution to the sharpness of IP it creates.

Where is that 5% edge over market's IP supposed to come from?

[kilmerAsHolliday]

Most commentators/pundits/talking heads watch plenty of game film. In fact, they have access to film that isn't available to joe gambler. These people also have the credentials to interview players, coaches, gm's etc and talk to their old buddies who are still part of the organizations. They can bounce ideas off their coworkers who are doing the same thing they are.

These experts, with all their extra and inside information couldn't pick their nose.