Originally Posted by
curinator
I know many people already replied to this thread, but just to throw my two cents in. Lots of hate on accuscore and other public modeling systems seems to be a bit unjustified.
Everyone expects to make 10% or more profit on turnover these days when it's very hard to even make 5%. This isn't the '80s where information is hard to come by. We all live in the internet age and all have access to a variety of tools. One thing people fail to recognize and always will fail to recognize is how important monitoring lines is and when to place a wager in regards to line movement. I don't care what kind of modeling system you've created or how you handicap games, if you can't devote a few hours a day to monitoring lines and betting percentages you will lose. Period. This is a concept I don't think will ever be fully understood. Handicapping and making a decent modeling system is half of the battle, knowing when to place your wager to avoid market rejection is the rest.
That being said I have found accuscore to be a very good start in regards to what lines to focus on. If you study their archives you will see they are much more accurate for certain lines than they are others. I am glad people have the mindset that any kind of system in the public domain doesn't work and I hope this trend continues, and I'm fairly certain it will. When people use a system like accuscore, they automate it and think they will have profitable results, devoting very little time to actually doing anything else. Money management and not realizing the importance of 5-10 cents will always ensure public modeling systems will be regarded as a "bad" tool to use in sportsbetting.
To answer your question, accuscore's simulations do find value and instead of focusing on custom simulations, I'd advise you to go through their yearly archives to find what kind of dogs and favorites and in what line-line range have been the most profitable each year. Once you can isolate these, you have a group of plays to focus on. Then the second part begins in regards to public betting percentages and line movement and making sure you place your wager at the right time during the day.
If you can't devote this effort to monitoring lines (and I know 95% of people can't due to work + family), then accuscore isn't probably for you. In fact, sports betting probably isn't either unless you like to lose money. Accuscore presents itselfs as a way to automate wagering and this is one thing they are not and one reason they probably don't have much respect in internet forum communities. People have tried automating their wagering using their simulations and you will lose money doing this. There is no get rich quick scheme or ways to automate wagering. Wagering is a science and art, finding a mathematical system is the science part and knowing how and when to place a wager is the art. You need to master both parts to be successful.