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large moneylines question
last night:
136 Akron is at +1150 / -1800 at pinny (no-vig line of +/- 1184) while the greek is offering +1500.
141 UMASS is at +816 / -1100 at pinny (no-vig line of +/- 840) while 5dimes reduced is offering +1000.
Assuming those pinny moneylines are going to be the closers, isn't there value in the other ones for the simple fact that they are so much better then the no-vig line? It's fairly common in tennis as well but surely it can't be that easy.
If I run a shitty high juice book and I set a line on the Dodgers game tonight at -1100/-1100, thenOriginally Posted by BeardedTaco
1. there is no EV
2. you have no idea what the fair line is
Even if there is +EV, it would be a tough way to go. You would have a lot of losing dogs before you hit a winner. Perhaps some generous soul would provide numbers on how often NCAAF 20+ point dogs win the game outright. I don't have the data, but it would be a simple database query. I would think it is a rare event but some numbers would give a quick estimate of whether your idea has possibilities.
The true "no vig" line doesn't have to be at the midpoint.
This. Sort of. The calculated no-vig line is really never at the "midpoint" unless it's a 50/50 proposition. However, if the market is dictating the price and you assume the market is efficient, that price would indicate an unbiased line - meaning that there isn't any value to be had in betting either side. In the OP's example, if you assume the Pinny line to be unbiased, the fair value of Akron could be anywhere from +1150 to +1800.
Yes. Assuming that will be the closing line, assuming Pinny closing line is efficient on that particular match, and assuming the vig is unbiased. None of which are assumptions you can make on a particular match.
but yes backing +1500 when an efficient, unbiased price on the opponent is -1184 will yield a 1.54% profit in the long run. No such ideal world exists.
The OP DID provide the calculated no-vig lines, he did not use midpoints.
Ya I did not use midpoints. Is this just a situation where large 4 digits moneylines are just not as efficient?
Right now I'm looking at the screen and 213 SMU is +252/-285 vs Baylor (+-261 NVL) at pinny and CRIS is hanging a +275. Would you feel more confident in that +275 being +EV (assuming +252 is the pinny closer)?
Skrtelfan was the one that brought up midpoints. That part of the reply was in response to his statement.
No. It's a situation of logic. If the market controls the price of a ML, it will be bet until there is no value remaining on either side (i.e. the line is unbiased). If the closing line is +250/-285, the fair value could be anywhere from +/- 250 to +/- 285. The number was moved arbitrarily to that value. You cannot say for certain that the individual match's fair value is at a specific point in that range.
You can feel more confident but not 100 percent. If the market is fairly efficient, you'll likely be on the right side of it more often than not in a situation such as that.Right now I'm looking at the screen and 213 SMU is +252/-285 vs Baylor (+-261 NVL) at pinny and CRIS is hanging a +275. Would you feel more confident in that +275 being +EV (assuming +252 is the pinny closer)?
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