Steelers +500 vs Chargers. your play and why?

**unlearn** · 10-12-19, 09:40 AM

I'm guessing you smoke a lot of weed

**unusialsusp5** · 10-12-19, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

Rivers and Sugarhouse offer bet bonus on Steelers at +500 on the ml. only $25 bet max, but hit both shops, $50 max to win $250

what's your play and why? does kelly say bet your entire bankroll?

totally cool to say $50 isn't worth your time as well, but that comes with the understanding that most professionals i've encountered say 2% of BR (or less) should be your max bet. meaning your BR (money you can afford to lose) is $2,500 or more. so if you are claiming $50 isn't worth your time, i assume it well under 1% of you BR, putting your BR well over $5K. if that is the case, congrats, and may you have continued success.

and if BR is not comprised of money you can afford to lose, quit gambling now until that is the case.

that 2% is folly and nonsense. no one bets less than 5% of their bankroll. bankrolls are easily replaceable if you lose. betting 2% gets you nowhere. send it in.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-13-19, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

that 2% is folly and nonsense. no one bets less than 5% of their bankroll. bankrolls are easily replaceable if you lose. betting 2% gets you nowhere. send it in.

seems like a great topic for discussion. let's attempt to ascertain the points we agree or disagree on first.

for my own understanding, you are stating that 5% of BR is the minimum anyone should bet?

begs the question, if there is a maximum, what is it?

on the topic of BR:
what is your definition?

every gambler ever born, in my mind, has a finite BR, whereas, in comparison, the sportsbook has a near infinite BR. so when you say it is replaceable, do you actually mean the full BR is not staked? stating it is replaceable leads me to believe that you feel your BR is also near infinite, funds that you can lose that will have zero impact on your current lifestyle, ie mortgage, car payment, utilities, food...

please help me understand what comprises the BR, in your mind?

what winning percentage do you expect from the best handicappers or sports bettors in the world?

**Believe_EMT** · 10-13-19, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by unlearn

I'm guessing you smoke a lot of weed

there was a time, of course, when that was a true statement

the point of this exercise was to help people determine their appetite for risk. mine is low.

i arb out on the SD ML and take my profit

people that don't mind risk will let it ride, but not be able to fully articulate their reasons

math guys will lay out the case of this being a bet with implied prob of ~28% at the price of an implied prob of ~16%. however, this being a single, independent event and they may not be offered again, i stick with the risk free profit.

**Maverick22** · 10-13-19, 11:20 AM

Let's go Bolts!

**AribaAriba** · 10-13-19, 06:08 PM

professional... what a tool.. what u mean professional. lol maybe poker professional player not sports bettor.

**zorba74** · 10-13-19, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

that 2% is folly and nonsense. no one bets less than 5% of their bankroll. bankrolls are easily replaceable if you lose. betting 2% gets you nowhere. send it in.

5% is sailing way too close to the wind. If you lose 5 in a row, you're down 25% and you need to grow the roll 33% from there just to get back to Break Even.

To each their own but the #1 priority should be to keep your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible and 5% as a default staking size is antithetical to that goal.

I don' think of BR's as replenishable but if you do then you can clearly be more aggressive but I think proper money management is invariant; meaning whether the roll is small or big, same rules apply.

**nash13** · 10-14-19, 04:43 AM

It is a simple equation.
I took a randomized number of 100 bets with odds at 1.95 and a WP of 54%.
Then i bet each time the percentage of the bank on independent bets.

odds	1.95	1.93	1.91
pct	profit	profit	profit
0,01	4.94	3.83	2.72
0,02	9.1	6,81	4,57
0,03	12,34	8,85	5,48
0,04	14,59	9,91	5,43
0,05	15,77	9,95	4,42
0,06	15,86	8,97	2,48
0,07	14,84	6,98	-0,36
0,08	12,75	4,04	-4
0,09	9,63	0,23	-8,38
0,1	5,56	-4,36	-13,37

the optimized bet size would be 6% with odds of 1.95
5% with 1.93
2% with 1.91
if you vary the bet size you leave a lot of profit on the table.

so the margin of profit depends on your success rate, the odds AND the unit size.
this seems obvious, but most of the people only think about their success rate and bets and not so much about the amount they are betting.

**zorba74** · 10-14-19, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by nash13

It is a simple equation.
I took a randomized number of 100 bets with odds at 1.95 and a WP of 54%.
Then i bet each time the percentage of the bank on independent bets.

odds	1.95	1.93	1.91
pct	profit	profit	profit
0,01	4.94	3.83	2.72
0,02	9.1	6,81	4,57
0,03	12,34	8,85	5,48
0,04	14,59	9,91	5,43
0,05	15,77	9,95	4,42
0,06	15,86	8,97	2,48
0,07	14,84	6,98	-0,36
0,08	12,75	4,04	-4
0,09	9,63	0,23	-8,38
0,1	5,56	-4,36	-13,37

the optimized bet size would be 6% with odds of 1.95
5% with 1.93
2% with 1.91
if you vary the bet size you leave a lot of profit on the table.

so the margin of profit depends on your success rate, the odds AND the unit size.
this seems obvious, but most of the people only think about their success rate and bets and not so much about the amount they are betting.

A Kelly Calculator will tell you your optimal bet size but you shouldn't be trying to optimize profits and one certainly shouldn't be betting 5% as a default staking size. Bet size varies based upon odds and perceived edge but if we are speaking, "in general," then 1% or less of roll per play is most prudent.

**nash13** · 10-14-19, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by zorba74

A Kelly Calculator will tell you your optimal bet size but you shouldn't be trying to optimize profits and one certainly shouldn't be betting 5% as a default staking size. Bet size varies based upon odds and perceived edge but if we are speaking, "in general," then 1% or less of roll per play is most prudent.

it was a generalized basic table, not the mathematical correct answer to the problem.

**zorba74** · 10-15-19, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by nash13

it was a generalized basic table, not the mathematical correct answer to the problem.

I understand and enjoyed your post, it was a good one. I'm just against promoting the idea of optimizing profits and used your post as an excuse to once again rail against optimization

**nash13** · 10-15-19, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by zorba74

I understand and enjoyed your post, it was a good one. I'm just against promoting the idea of optimizing profits and used your post as an excuse to once again rail against optimization

Since you can not quantify your performance BEFORE the bets, there is no need to speculate on any optimized bet size.
I am a big fan of even stakes and adjusting yours to the bankroll rising or dropping accordingly.

**zorba74** · 10-15-19, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by nash13

Since you can not quantify your performance BEFORE the bets, there is no need to speculate on any optimized bet size.
I am a big fan of even stakes and adjusting yours to the bankroll rising or dropping accordingly.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-17-19, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by zorba74

5% is sailing way too close to the wind. If you lose 5 in a row, you're down 25% and you need to grow the roll 33% from there just to get back to Break Even.

To each their own but the #1 priority should be to keep your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible and 5% as a default staking size is antithetical to that goal.

I don' think of BR's as replenishable but if you do then you can clearly be more aggressive but I think proper money management is invariant; meaning whether the roll is small or big, same rules apply.

oh man, did not think we hit risk of ruin so quickly in this thread. i was hoping we could start a discussion that would eventually lead unuwhateverthefukk to the right answer.

but that is the key, right? any bettor can tell me their Edge is X and they should be betting 5% of their bankroll. but we all know that math doesn't work that way. there will be peaks and valleys and the more plays you make the more pronounced those peaks and valleys become. and those valleys lead to Ruin.