How efficient is the NHL betting market?

**icon** · 09-18-19, 03:01 PM

yes

**Gaze73** · 09-18-19, 03:12 PM

95% just like ever major league? But it's definitely beatable, I tail a guy who used to play for Rangers and he's by far the best NHL bettor I've ever seen.

**oilcountry99** · 09-18-19, 03:15 PM

How efficient are opening lines if closers are 95% (assuming that's correct)

**CanuckG** · 09-18-19, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

95% just like ever major league? But it's definitely beatable, I tail a guy who used to play for Rangers and he's by far the best NHL bettor I've ever seen.

Who is this?

**icon** · 09-18-19, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Who is this?

Mark Messier obviously.

**Gaze73** · 09-19-19, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by icon

Mark Messier obviously.

Nah, he was a goalie.

**TheMoneyShot** · 09-19-19, 02:06 AM

Richter?

**Gaze73** · 09-19-19, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Richter?

He didn't say but it's very likely. He started betting soon after retiring.

**gdon44** · 09-19-19, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

Does anyone know this answer or how to go about finding it?
is it 60%, 70%, 80% ?

Do you mean just how often the favourite wins? That's around 60%

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-19-19, 12:20 PM

Would be a nice score, if u could hit this daily.

I believe the Westgate has 10-cent lines, up to -150 or so. Oil, u follow the daily injuries? I always felt like Defenseman rotation injuries went under the radar + didn't move the # enuf.

**veriableodds** · 09-25-19, 01:02 AM

look for matchups where the teams are pretty much split even in all stats from away, home, records , including the stats and all the %'s. Take the dog every time as long as your getting +105 or better . Basically your betting bias or live dogs as its called. You will make out great I was up almost 30 units after just 2.5 months last season I quit early. Another great stat to use is league trends the trend is your friend, find a couple angles that have worked going a few years back.

**Rich Boy** · 09-25-19, 10:28 AM

Way more beatable than other markets, just look at the limits books have on lines, especially totals

I made a killing on UNDERs back in the day before the league fcked everything up now its an over league

**Believe_EMT** · 10-07-19, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Way more beatable than other markets, just look at the limits books have on lines, especially totals

I made a killing on UNDERs back in the day before the league fcked everything up now its an over league

might want to revisit this claim, Totals look pretty friggin efficient over last 3 season, even leaning to the Under (50.6%):

2018:

625-667-66 (0.05, 48.4%)

avg total: 5.9

2017:

662-643-50 (0.25, 50.7%)

avg total: 5.7

2016:

563-589-165 (0.22, 48.9%)

avg total: 5.3

**Believe_EMT** · 10-07-19, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

Does anyone know this answer or how to go about finding it?
is it 60%, 70%, 80% ?

Hey Oil, not sure what answer you are exactly looking for, but i define an efficient market as one where blindly betting Faves or Dogs results in long term loss. Since the start of the 2010 season, and only favorites of -120 or greater:

SU: 5211-3411 (0.57, 60.4%)
avg line: -163.4 / 148.3
on / against: -$19,609 / -$30,250
ROI: -1.4% / -3.5%

if you want something better than me saying you lose no matter what

take the average favorite of -163.4

implied probability of the no vig line is 60.58%

seems pretty fukkin close to the 60.4% win percentage from above

are there subsets in there that might be profitable? of course, but any edge we find that is older than a few years, it's already gone, exploited by sharp bettors and incorporated by the books as time passes and the market continues to evolve. that is why i caution anyone trying to dig out some subset historical data and think it will be profitable

hope that helps

GL

**oilcountry99** · 10-08-19, 07:30 AM

EMT....thanks

**milwaukee mike** · 10-08-19, 08:06 AM

good stuff guys

like any major sport, there is efficiency in the main lines (spread/total/ml) and less efficiency in the period lines/alt lines/etc

it always boggles my mind that people will try to beat the efficient lines and not the inefficient ones, especially if they are low $ bettors that would be under the limits

**nash13** · 10-08-19, 12:43 PM

early in the season the NHL is the best sport where you can make money.
if you know goalies and can analyze teams Efficiency, it will be a goldmine.

**nash13** · 10-08-19, 04:57 PM

the most important stat in hockey betting is shots on goal.
take a high volume shooting team playing away.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-24-19, 10:47 PM

my sense is that hockey could be quite beatable. but it requires alot of work. and alot of it is situational as opposed to statistical in other sports.

nothing to do with hockey being beatable........ but i live in vancouver and i think this canucks team is well placed to go on a good run. quinn hughes seems to really add something to the young core of peterson, boeser and horvat. demko isn't the starting goalie but he played really well in markstrom's absense. will likely light a fire under the team. alot of this might be priced in already, of course.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-24-19, 10:47 PM

some really good quant suggestions in this thread too... much appreciated.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-27-19, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by nash13

the most important stat in hockey betting is shots on goal.
take a high volume shooting team playing away.

agree with this to a point. i would like to see shots expressed as a ratio to puck possession for each team.

if we have 2 teams topping 35 shots a game (not playing one another in this example):

team A is one and done shots and then back on defense
team B is generating shots from puck possession (i.e. limiting the opposition's time with the puck)

i'll place small wager that team B is likely to win more games.

if i were going to pursue it really in depth, i would also want to know a teams overall shots compared to PP shots per game, taken against how likely their next opponent is to take penalties.

then i'd kick myself for doing all this work for information that is already factored into the line

**thomorino** · 10-27-19, 04:28 PM

A much more interesting study would be to look at just opening lines and how efficient they are. The nhl betting market is far less liquid than the NFL and other major markets, lines for sides and totals frequently moved 20-30 cents.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-30-19, 03:02 PM

agree with the statement less liquidity in the NHL market. my concern would be finding reliable data. would depend on source of information feeding the db. most of these fukkers are dealing 20 cent lines on nhl, in my mind, indicating a less than efficient market that has books seeking insulation from risk.

**PhillipKessel** · 10-30-19, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by gdon44

Do you mean just how often the favourite wins? That's around 60%

Yep. 59.5% over the last 1500 games.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 11-01-19, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

nothing to do with hockey being beatable........ but i live in vancouver and i think this canucks team is well placed to go on a good run. quinn hughes seems to really add something to the young core of peterson, boeser and horvat. demko isn't the starting goalie but he played really well in markstrom's absense. will likely light a fire under the team. alot of this might be priced in already, of course.

canucks should be 3-0 since this comment, but they blew a 5-1 lead at home to washington...... canucks are scoring like crazy, and it's well balanced scoring. i doubt the well balanced aspect will continue, but i expect the canucks to keep on a good run

**ordaflavius** · 11-02-19, 07:09 AM

when open lines can make money,

**Believe_EMT** · 11-02-19, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by ordaflavius

when open lines can make money,

do you take any action if the market moves that number against you?

**Believe_EMT** · 11-02-19, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

canucks should be 3-0 since this comment, but they blew a 5-1 lead at home to washington...... canucks are scoring like crazy, and it's well balanced scoring. i doubt the well balanced aspect will continue, but i expect the canucks to keep on a good run

i like this kind of information. unsure if HTT is the place, but being Pgh, and working for a living, i'm usually in bed before the puck even drops in a canucks game. any info from a local source is welcomed.

pens are back to being the pens of old, the ones that changed the entire nhl, with nearly every team going smaller, younger, faster. there was a time when they kind of got away from that, but it is trending back in that direction. some of that due to injuries, so it will be interesting to see if the guys that came up from the minors stay here. early signs are no, since rust and aston-reese returned and some kids went back down.

**ordaflavius** · 11-02-19, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

do you take any action if the market moves that number against you?

nope, with many bets will be on profit if you just catch the good line...like value

**ordaflavius** · 11-02-19, 09:47 AM

if you find 2.0 and the odds go down until 1,5 is very good, no need to cashout if go wrong...becuase in the future,with many and many bets you will be on profit, just catch the good line

**gojetsgomoxies** · 11-02-19, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

i like this kind of information. unsure if HTT is the place, but being Pgh, and working for a living, i'm usually in bed before the puck even drops in a canucks game. any info from a local source is welcomed.

pens are back to being the pens of old, the ones that changed the entire nhl, with nearly every team going smaller, younger, faster. there was a time when they kind of got away from that, but it is trending back in that direction. some of that due to injuries, so it will be interesting to see if the guys that came up from the minors stay here. early signs are no, since rust and aston-reese returned and some kids went back down.

being local gives such great insight on the teams IF you maintain your objectivity...... you can't get a great feel for SEC football living in seattle, but Pac12 you should be able to.

**Bsims** · 11-03-19, 06:27 AM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

i like this kind of information. unsure if HTT is the place,

Agreed. This is not the forum for picks. There are others.

**Believe_EMT** · 11-03-19, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by ordaflavius

if you find 2.0 and the odds go down until 1,5 is very good, no need to cashout if go wrong...becuase in the future,with many and many bets you will be on profit, just catch the good line

will not dispute this.

but my question is what happens when you get in at 1.5 (-200) and it drops to 1.57 (-175)

just maybe change your thoughts on such an event to:

the market is clearly telling me i am wrong (wrong in my sense of valuation)

i paid too much for this asset. it original was priced at a 67% prob of winning, and now it is priced at 64%.

but what does that mean long term? just worked out this way, i did not plan it. since 2010, faves closing at 1.57 (-175) are 79-45 (64%) winners. right in line with the market price. so the price you paid makes a huge impact.

paying 1.57 you are +.25 Units

paying 1.5 for a 1.57 asset, you are -11 Units.

with that information in our hands, the next question
at least for me
becomes:
how do we limit our losses when our asset's value drops.