Math Nerds ALERT! Need help!

**Barrakuda** · 06-16-19, 05:31 AM

https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools

A series of calculators to help a sports bettor convert odds, size bets correctly or evaluate winrate.

**Optional** · 06-16-19, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by PhatDong

Going to use an arbitrary example here.....Also, lets assume that there is no minimum and no maximum bet at my sportsbook.

Bankroll: $100k

CIN (+133) v CHC (-153)

But, lets say that I calculated CIN to only be valued at (+122, an 8% difference) and winning approximately 45% of the time, thus there is a bit of value to be had on betting CIN. If we use Kelly Betting, this obviously doesn't take into the very small edge we have and rather just the percent chance we will win; therefore I don't feel it would give us a proper and accurate percentage of our bankroll to bet. (I could be delusional in this and maybe it's not necessary to consider the 8% difference)

How could/would you calculate how much to bet using both the percent chance that you've calculated to win as well as considering the 8% difference?

Thanks all for the help!

The +122 you estimate gives you the 45% implied prob to win. The 8% is your estimated edge, and that's not a ' very small edge'. It's significant.

You use the odds you can get, and the % chance to win to calc your kelly bet size. (that includes your perceived edge of 8%)

Sounds like you are over thinking it a bit?

**LT Profits** · 06-16-19, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by PhatDong

Going to use an arbitrary example here.....Also, lets assume that there is no minimum and no maximum bet at my sportsbook.

Bankroll: $100k

CIN (+133) v CHC (-153)

But, lets say that I calculated CIN to only be valued at (+122, an 8% difference) and winning approximately 45% of the time, thus there is a bit of value to be had on betting CIN. If we use Kelly Betting, this obviously doesn't take into the very small edge we have and rather just the percent chance we will win; therefore I don't feel it would give us a proper and accurate percentage of our bankroll to bet. (I could be delusional in this and maybe it's not necessary to consider the 8% difference)

How could/would you calculate how much to bet using both the percent chance that you've calculated to win as well as considering the 8% difference?

Thanks all for the help!

How are you getting 8%, is edge not 4.7%? +133 is 43%, so .45/.43 = 1.047

**u21c3f6** · 06-16-19, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

How are you getting 8%, is edge not 4.7%? +133 is 43%, so .45/.43 = 1.047

I believe he means that the line is 11 points too high and his 8% difference is 11/133

Joe.

**LT Profits** · 06-16-19, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

I believe he means that the line is 11 points too high and his 8% difference is 11/133

Joe.

OK but it is not 8% edge.

**semibluff** · 06-16-19, 04:28 PM

It's not really helpful to say an 8% advantage since no-one will know exactly how you're calculating it. Is it the difference between the % of the actual odds vs the % of your analysis, 100% * the odds % / the analysis %, the difference of 100% * 133 / 122, 11 / 133, 11 / 122, or something else altogether. Saying the odds are +133, (42.918%) but my analysis suggests they should be +122, (45.045%), thus my edge is 45.045% - 42.918% is clearer and avoids such problems.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-16-19, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by PhatDong

If we use Kelly Betting, this obviously doesn't take into the very small edge we have and rather just the percent chance we will win; therefore I don't feel it would give us a proper and accurate percentage of our bankroll to bet. (I could be delusional in this and maybe it's not necessary to consider the 8% difference)

That is a 4.85% edge. Which is pretty huge. On most sports, the sportsbooks only get a 4.55%, so you're beating their edge. On baseball it is usually about half that. Casinos are perfectly fine offering blackjack games where they have a less than 1% edge.

What makes Kelly Criterion possible is that any set of probabilities and odds can be used. Your feelings about being proper and accurate are completely wrong.