[waiverwire]

I've literally never seen this discussed, which is kind of puzzling to me. How do people model projected innings pitched for a starting pitcher for a specific game? It's obviously absurd to just use the pitcher's average...the same pitcher at home in San Diego against Washington should go much deeper than on the road at the Cubs.

It probably matters more to me since I'm using it for daily fantasy contests (not regular sports betting), but I don't really see how any baseball handicapper can predict the score for a game without making some kind of assumptions about innings pitched for the starters.

The approach I'm thinking about using would combine the pitchers' average innings pitched and the ease or difficulty of the situation they're facing.

The simplest version would multiply their average innings pitched (or projected average) by Today's projected ERA/their park neutral season's projected ERA.

A better version would probably include a normalized WHIP as part of the calculation, instead of just using a normalized ERA. My reason for thinking that is that throwing lots of pitches and being ineffective would likely limit IP more than simply being ineffective.

In any case, I'd like hear what others think. I may actually test some different ideas out at some point, but haven't had the time yet.

[wintermute]

How do people model projected innings pitched for a starting pitcher for a specific game?

I don't know what kind of modeling you're doing but in my simulation model I handle pitcher substitutions using counts of pitches thrown. I know the historical game average for the starting pitcher and the at bat average for each of the batters he faces. When the running count exceeds his average I yank him and put in a reliever.

Relievers are handled the same way. You could get fancier and do things like keep the pitcher in longer if he's pitching well and yank him earlier if he's being bombed but I haven't got that sophisticated yet.

I get the data from Retrosheet event files.

[Bsims]

Waiverwire,

I like to help you, but since you've won our last two head to head matches at Draftbug, I think I'll pass. Maybe if I win tonight I might reconsider.

[waiverwire]

Waiverwire,

I like to help you, but since you've won our last two head to head matches at Draftbug, I think I'll pass. Maybe if I win tonight I might reconsider.

Now that I...ummm...ahem...PURPOSELY lost to you for double the stakes, maybe you can contribue your thoughts on the innings pitched projections.

-WW

P.S. I'm looking for an opponent in a $33 night games contest if you're up for it.