[mathdotcom]

1. Is it possible to make money betting sports?

A: Yes
B: No
C: None of the above

2. If the line is Team A -110 and Team B -105, and you estimate Team A has a 50.6% chance of winning, do you:

A: Bet Team A because they are more likely to win
B: Bet Team B because the juice is lower
C: Don't make a bet
D: None of the above

3. You have a BR of $100,000 and access to two sportsbooks. Sportsbook A has $1,000 limits on NBA totals and Pinnacle has $10,000 limits. Pinnacle has the total on an NBA game at O200 +101 and U200 -110. Sportsbook A has the total at Over 220 -110/ Under 220 +100. Do you:

A: Don't bet because you don't have a model that estimates NBA totals
B: Bet $1000 on Under 220 at sportsbook A
C: Bet $1000 on Under 220 at sportsbook A and $500 on O200 at Pinnacle to guarantee a profit
D: Bet $1000 on Under 220 at sportsbook A and $1000 on O200 at Pinnacle to guarantee a small profit but a chance at a big payday if both cash.
E: None of the above

4. Same question as #3 except $98,000 of your BR is stuck in a slow paying book like BOL and you don't expect to get paid for two months. Of the remaining $2,000 you have $1,000 in each of sportsbook A and Pinnacle. Your daughter's birthday is in a month and you absolutely need $1100 to buy her a pony. You have no other way of getting cash to make this purchase but to withdraw instantaneously from either Sportsbook A, Pinnacle, or both. Regardless of the game's result, after it's over you are taking a month vacation from betting because you have tired gambling eyes. What do you do?

A: Don't bet. Now I can buy my daughter a pony.
B. Bet $1000 on Under 220 at sportsbook A. If I win I can buy her a pony and buy myself one too.
C: Bet $1000 on Under 220 at sportsbook A and $995 on O200 at Pinnacle to guarantee a profit.
D: None of the above

Posters that PM me the right answers will hereby be MDC Industries Certified HTT posters and an SBR thong will be delivered free to your door.

Mathy

[mathdotcom]

Poster cheeese is now certified

[cheeese]

I'll be taking that thong in the hottest pink you have. xxxxl or 2 xxl will suffice. I don't want to have to start a "MDC Industries thong slow pay" thread but I will.

[mathdotcom]

I'll be taking that thong in the hottest pink you have. xxxxl or 2 xxl will suffice. I don't want to have to start a "MDC Industries thong slow pay" thread but I will.

[HedgeHog]

Do questions #3 and #4 take into account that one of the lines is seriously off and thus subject to the bad line rule? I'd hate to have one of my bets canceled, leaving my offsetting bet (and kid's pony) at risk.

[mathdotcom]

Sharp comment HH, one that has been brought up before by other experienced bettors.

It is NOT a bad line... just a bad linesmaker... pump away

[HedgeHog]

#1 and #2 are obvious. If you can't get them right, please stop betting altogether. Since this is the HTT, I choose to combine questions 3 & 4 and propose a better solution. I open 9 more accounts with various Sportsbook A skins so as to increase my limit to $10,000 and match Pinny's. I now play for a $20k middle instead of $2k. And if I'm lucky enough to hit it, fukk the pony nonsense. Instead I buy a yearling racehorse with potential and force the kid to take jockey lessons. With any luck, she'll be making me money for years to come.

No need to send me a free thong, I'm flush with them already--got 'em up the ass, so to speak.

[mathdotcom]

Sorry

Funds tied up in BOL

Daughter really wants a pony or you will not stop hearing about it for years

[rsigley]

true gamblers would have alienated their family and not be allowed to see their daughter by court order tho

[subs]

cheeese, hedge and sigs this right here has been MDC Industries Certified (for years - da da dat dat dat).




mathsy - answer invisible. arb when u have to lock in profits, otherwise hit stale numbers.


Ps hedgehog, i enjoyed reading ur exchanges w Ganchrow years ago, nice.

[mathdotcom]

[HedgeHog]

arb when u have to lock in profits, otherwise hit stale numbers.


Ps hedgehog, i enjoyed reading ur exchanges w Ganchrow years ago, nice.

Being mentioned in the same sentence with Ganch is a true honor, thanks. Reading his threads made me a smarter bettor/invester.

[mathdotcom]

Being mentioned in the same sentence with Ganch is a true honor, thanks. Reading his threads made me a smarter bettor/invester.

why were you arguing with him then??

[HedgeHog]

why were you arguing with him then??

I'm not sure what thread(s) you are referring to, but I don't doubt disagreeing with any poster from time to time. It doesn't mean I don't respect him. Odds are if/when I did disagree with Ganch, he was almost surely right and I was wrong-- but I guarantee you I learned from it.

[mathdotcom]

was just curious

[Teamprofit101]

hey mathdotcom, i just purchased two books recommended to me by you......."weighin in on the odds in sports betting" and "sharp sports betting".

I have alot of reading to do but will reading the books help me answer those questions correctly?

[mathdotcom]

Absolutely they will

[Sawyer]

1. Yes (A)


2. Don't make a bet. Both bets have negative EV. (C)


3. Most easiest question ever..Of course, bet Under at Sportsbook A. No need to mess with arbitrage since you're already making an extremely EV+ bet. It's like betting tiebreak at +100 while market offer is -200.


4. What a stupid question! Hahahahaha. Thanks Mathy..

[mathdotcom]

No one has gotten #4 yet!

[Justin7]

Re: #4. I have 2 young daughters, and one already loves ponies, so this question grabbed my attention.

E. None of the above.

With $1k in each of 2 different fast-paying books, I can guarantee a pony for my daughter by placing no bets. Assuming my daughter's pony is of more value than additional profits (from your scenario), this is a possible solution.

A better solution is to risk $950 on UNDER 220 at the rogue book, but only if it is a Vegas book that will pay on a bad line, since this is 20 points off market if we assume Pinnacle is correct. If the book is likely to void the wager, the prior solution is better (to avoid the freeroll risk if they choose to void a bad-line wager after it loses). I am also assuming that Pinny's price is at market. If Pinny had a bad line (e.g., the rest of the market was at 220) you simply pass, going back to the first solution.

[mathdotcom]

Re: #4. I have 2 young daughters, and one already loves ponies, so this question grabbed my attention.

E. None of the above.

With $1k in each of 2 different fast-paying books, I can guarantee a pony for my daughter by placing no bets. Assuming my daughter's pony is of more value than additional profits (from your scenario), this is a possible solution.

A better solution is to risk $950 on UNDER 220 at the rogue book, but only if it is a Vegas book that will pay on a bad line, since this is 20 points off market if we assume Pinnacle is correct. If the book is likely to void the wager, the prior solution is better (to avoid the freeroll risk if they choose to void a bad-line wager after it loses). I am also assuming that Pinny's price is at market. If Pinny had a bad line (e.g., the rest of the market was at 220) you simply pass, going back to the first solution.

If it loses you end up with $1000 in one book and only $50 in the other.... no pony...

[mathdotcom]

And yes an implicit assumption is that none of the lines are 'bad lines' and all bets will be honored.

[subs]

No one has gotten #4 yet!

didn't realise this was still going - lol

u just want to maximise EG but need to make sure u have $1100 as a minimum.

so u bet it all at the soft line and then buy back enough to have the $1100 if u lose. so bet ~ $100 at pinny to make sure u can still buy a pony if ur +EV bet loses. whatever happens u still have a giant pain in the ass creature to deal with.

A better option is to teach child to do work behind the screen, and let it buy its own ******* pony.

can my thong come with 1 of these Pls.

[subs]

just to complete the analysis, if u estimate less +EV at the soft number than your estimate of the -EV for the hedge (which is not the case here by a long shot), then you would obv only bet $900 at the soft number.

[HedgeHog]

#4 C

One of the bets has to win, leaving you with $2000 in one of the accounts-- more than enough for the horsy. You may even win both bets.

PS My choice is based on not knowing which line is off and assuming that there is plenty of time left to withdraw after the game (1 month) to get the present prior to her B-Day (otherwise A is the correct answer--withdraw from both books immediately to keep the kid happy).

[subs]

but why pay the pinny vig in full on a bet u don't really want to take?

hedging is great if u can overbet, in this situation u just can't, so the right answer is prolly to withdraw $452 from pinny and into neteller cos u r in canada, and it is instantaneous. deposit into book A.


bet the balance in A and then hedge $548 at pinny.

[mathdotcom]

didn't realise this was still going - lol

u just want to maximise EG but need to make sure u have $1100 as a minimum.

so u bet it all at the soft line and then buy back enough to have the $1100 if u lose. so bet ~ $100 at pinny to make sure u can still buy a pony if ur +EV bet loses. whatever happens u still have a giant pain in the ass creature to deal with.

A better option is to teach child to do work behind the screen, and let it buy its own ******* pony.

can my thong come with 1 of these Pls.

Finally... the correct answer

[mathdotcom]

#4 C

One of the bets has to win, leaving you with $2000 in one of the accounts-- more than enough for the horsy. You may even win both bets.

PS My choice is based on not knowing which line is off and assuming that there is plenty of time left to withdraw after the game (1 month) to get the present prior to her B-Day (otherwise A is the correct answer--withdraw from both books immediately to keep the kid happy).

Come on now

[HedgeHog]

Come on now

I missed the part that said "assume Pinny's line is correct".

[subs]

but why pay the pinny vig in full on a bet u don't really want to take?

hedging is great if u can overbet, in this situation u just can't, so the right answer is prolly to withdraw $452 from pinny and into neteller cos u r in canada, and it is instantaneous. deposit into book A.


bet the balance in A and then hedge $548 at pinny.

IMO, this is the best answer, although by the time you do the withdraw and then deposit at book A the line is almost sure to have been taken off the board, cos you and sigs have repeatedly smashed it.

[mathdotcom]

didn't realise this was still going - lol

u just want to maximise EG but need to make sure u have $1100 as a minimum.

so u bet it all at the soft line and then buy back enough to have the $1100 if u lose. so bet ~ $100 at pinny to make sure u can still buy a pony if ur +EV bet loses. whatever happens u still have a giant pain in the ass creature to deal with.

A better option is to teach child to do work behind the screen, and let it buy its own ******* pony.

can my thong come with 1 of these Pls.

The more formal mathematical version of the question is just to maximize EV subject to a (binding) minimum BR after the event. I kept it simple and avoided questions of EG by giving the player a BR high enough that risking a dime on this great line would certainly not be an overbet according to Kelly.

In practice Kelly concerns are the only reason you'd ever want to bet on both sides.

[HedgeHog]

I am also assuming that Pinny's price is at market. If Pinny had a bad line (e.g., the rest of the market was at 220) you simply pass, going back to the first solution.

This is why I chose C--play for the full middle. I wasn't 100% sure who had the bad line either, so given that all both bets would be honored, that would be the logical choice.

[mathdotcom]

This is why I chose C--play for the full middle. I wasn't 100% sure who had the bad line either, so given that all both bets would be honored, that would be the logical choice.

Well if you're going to go outside the bounds of the question, then why not just look at other books to find the true price.

Come on guys... quit butchering the question

Still waiting for Justin to justify his answer

[Justin7]

Well if you're going to go outside the bounds of the question, then why not just look at other books to find the true price.

Come on guys... quit butchering the question

Still waiting for Justin to justify his answer

No justification. I had a late-night brain cramp. 900 should be at risk.

[HedgeHog]

]Well if you're going to go outside the bounds of the question, then why not just look at other books to find the true price.

[/B]Come on guys... quit butchering the question

Still waiting for Justin to justify his answer

Exactly what one should do--verify the correct line and bet accordingly. But what if that search determines that Sportsbook A was correct and Pinny was off, which is just as likely a possibilty as the example is given. I'm not trying to split hairs, just saying I didn't assume Pinny had to be the right line.


So I'm keeping my HTT posting privileges on this technicality. Seriously though, congrats to Subs. Enjoy your lifetime supply of thongs plus I hear Mathy's tossing in a free pony (turns out his daughter is allergic).