NHL
Boston Bruins -113
New York Islanders +102
Boston has won the past 6 matchups vs Islanders including 2 wins this season. Thinking Boston would win 7 in a row would be recency bias but I argue there has to be some correlation between specific matchups using past performance.
Under Sagarin and eigenvector models the following are displayed:
Sagarin:
NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.07 boston bruins 104 51% 4.97
NYI being the favorite winning 51% here for an implied line of -104
Eigenvector:
@ New York Islanders 0.15 111 53% Boston Bruins
NYI being the favorite winning 53% here for an implied line of -111.
According to the model, it makes sense with home team receiving an additional 0.28 in rating with Boston at 4.34 vs NYI 4.11 on neutral field.
How do models take into account recency bias vs certain teams? Is there an value that can extrapolated from previous matchups instead of just calculating a point ranking system for each team, independent from matchup. While every game is different, I would still argue there is a small correlation between certain teams performance vs another specific team rather than as a whole league. For example, team A in X league wins 55% games over 3 years but against specifically team B, due to certain player matchups, wins 65% of the time. Is this already inputted into the team point rankings or can we further correlate this out? My thought is that the point system is a first level, with say a correlation of 0.8 of teams performing against an entire league, with 0.1 or less correlation specific to team matchup.
If I assumed Sagarin/Eigenvector were true models of probability (I do not at this time as I have not reviewed the models results), would that imply public bias has the wrong team favored here?
If the wrong team is favored here why have sharps not moved the line? Knowing that a large % of money will come in on NYI, is it expected that books will simply just leave the line as is even if sharps come on NYI?
At first glance of NHL games tonight, this screamed Boston win without looking at models. So I'm sure the public will be all over Boston too.
Sorry for repetition just trying to understand more of analytics and probabilities when it comes to sports betting. Work in finance modelling so it intrigues me.
Boston Bruins -113
New York Islanders +102
Boston has won the past 6 matchups vs Islanders including 2 wins this season. Thinking Boston would win 7 in a row would be recency bias but I argue there has to be some correlation between specific matchups using past performance.
Under Sagarin and eigenvector models the following are displayed:
Sagarin:
NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.07 boston bruins 104 51% 4.97
NYI being the favorite winning 51% here for an implied line of -104
Eigenvector:
@ New York Islanders 0.15 111 53% Boston Bruins
NYI being the favorite winning 53% here for an implied line of -111.
According to the model, it makes sense with home team receiving an additional 0.28 in rating with Boston at 4.34 vs NYI 4.11 on neutral field.
How do models take into account recency bias vs certain teams? Is there an value that can extrapolated from previous matchups instead of just calculating a point ranking system for each team, independent from matchup. While every game is different, I would still argue there is a small correlation between certain teams performance vs another specific team rather than as a whole league. For example, team A in X league wins 55% games over 3 years but against specifically team B, due to certain player matchups, wins 65% of the time. Is this already inputted into the team point rankings or can we further correlate this out? My thought is that the point system is a first level, with say a correlation of 0.8 of teams performing against an entire league, with 0.1 or less correlation specific to team matchup.
If I assumed Sagarin/Eigenvector were true models of probability (I do not at this time as I have not reviewed the models results), would that imply public bias has the wrong team favored here?
If the wrong team is favored here why have sharps not moved the line? Knowing that a large % of money will come in on NYI, is it expected that books will simply just leave the line as is even if sharps come on NYI?
At first glance of NHL games tonight, this screamed Boston win without looking at models. So I'm sure the public will be all over Boston too.
Sorry for repetition just trying to understand more of analytics and probabilities when it comes to sports betting. Work in finance modelling so it intrigues me.
