1. 07-20-12 03:36 PM #1
    339955
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    Backtesting Football 1st Quarter Derivatives

    I have a DB of football games from 2008 to current with the full game line, and the score each quarter. I figured out a way to get the correct first quarter line based on the full game line. I want to test that my predictions are accurate. I understand that I can use data from 2008 through 2010 to test the year 2011, but the problem is I do not have the pinnacle 1st quarter lines in my DB to test. I believe to get a reasonable sample size it will take too long to do this by hand as I would need a sample size of about 500 games bet. How can I backtest my 1st quarter predictions?
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  2. 07-20-12 04:04 PM #2
    tukkk
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    you really are an unlucky boy

    you could have entered the 1Q lines by hand and be done by now instead of you know what
    Last edited by tukkk; 07-20-12 at 04:18 PM.
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  3. 07-22-12 12:47 PM #3
    339955
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    thanks for the help everyone!!

    tukkk it is ungodly tedious to enter lines into a sqlite database by hand. i went ahead and put the time in and just scraped all the lines yesterday
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  4. 07-25-12 12:22 PM #4
    DanelEP
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    where did you find the pinny Q1 lines??
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  5. 07-26-12 09:43 AM #5
    Pancho sanza
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    You need a hell of a lot more than 3 years data to develop any quarter betting strategies.
    Last edited by Pancho sanza; 07-26-12 at 10:15 AM.
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  6. 07-26-12 10:08 AM #6
    subs
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanelEP View Post
    where did you find the pinny Q1 lines??
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds...l/1st-quarter/
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  7. 07-26-12 11:30 AM #7
    rsigley
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    Unluckyhooyyy
    Last edited by rsigley; 07-26-12 at 02:20 PM.
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  8. 07-26-12 01:59 PM #8
    MidnightToker
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    I'd tell you not to give away everything, but it's obvious that regardless of the amount of help some people get, they still won't get it.
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  9. 07-26-12 09:58 PM #9
    339955
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    hi all thanks for the responses. i have a couple of questions. i thought it was bad to get too many years because rule changes in the games will distort the data?

    also, is coin flip information regarding which team will receive the ball taken into account in quarters lines for college and pro football?

    thanks!!
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  10. 07-27-12 03:52 PM #10
    DanelEP
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    Quote Originally Posted by subs View Post
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds...l/1st-quarter/
    Thanks for the help. As far as I can tell, SBR only shows you full game spreads, moneylines, and totals for past games. For instance if I check a random sunday from last years season: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds...?date=20111127 If I select the info for a game then select Line History it just shows the full game lines despite being on the 1st-quarter page. Maybe I'm doing something wrong? Thanks again.
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  11. 08-05-12 11:44 PM #11
    subs
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    sorry, i seem to have given u wrong info....try oddsportal
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  12. 08-06-12 07:17 AM #12
    ICE-BLOOD
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    Quote Originally Posted by 339955 View Post
    hi all thanks for the responses. i have a couple of questions. i thought it was bad to get too many years because rule changes in the games will distort the data?

    also, is coin flip information regarding which team will receive the ball taken into account in quarters lines for college and pro football?

    thanks!!


    the 1st quarter line comes down at the time of the coin flip !

    knowing which team gets the kick-off would give a big edge
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  13. 08-06-12 07:37 AM #13
    TheMoneyShot
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    Hooked On Phonics worked for me!
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  14. 08-07-12 10:45 PM #14
    DanelEP
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    Quote Originally Posted by subs View Post
    sorry, i seem to have given u wrong info....try oddsportal
    ty!
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  15. 08-22-12 09:24 AM #15
    rsigley
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    bump

    you doing this unlockedboy?? games start next thursday
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