[Regul8er]

Hey Guys,

Long story short, lifetime I have most certainly been a loser, and I have some supporting evidence now. I have been gambling online with 2 sportsbooks since October 2007. I was able to compile all of the history over that time, and get it into a single database. I was able to scrub and sort the thing into something manageable. I am only looking at my straight wagers, and have isolated parlays, futures, etc...because frankly there aren't many, and I am up lifetime less then $100. No point in getting myself confused.

Over the past 5 years or so, I have taken many extended breaks due to lack of funds or simply time to clear my head. With that said, I think it's extremely detrimental that I have placed 2,463 straight wagers over this period. I have gone stretches where I'll bet 50-75 games per week, and I've really struggled with chasing. I don't really know how to recognize value, as I bet with virtually no rhyme or reason, just gut feel....and I want this to change, or I don't need to be wasting my time with the grind.

This first tab is just an overall summary of the sports, winning percentages, units and amount won/lost.
I understand it doesn't show much, but it paints a decent picture. I should point out an outlier, in which I won a wager at +1700 (soccer half time bet earlier this year) that skews my units for the better! Too bad I only risked $10!

I also have tabs breaking down the summary into Point Spreads, MoneyLines and Totals.
The final tab breaks down the summary into bet types as well (Full Game, 1st Half, 2nd Half, In Play, etc) It's filtered, so you can isolate certain categories.

Looking at the final tab I see that I have done pretty good betting halves, but this is most likely shear luck!


Is there anything useful I can take out of this data, or is it pretty much useless? I didn't realize I've bet so many Tennis, Soccer and Euro Basketball matches over the years. (OLYMP is Olympic basketball). I know virtually nothing about these sports, yet I have bet them due to either chasing or simply wanting action at a certain point in the day. Looking at the numbers I've done pretty terrible on these sports, especially ATP and soccer totals.


I know I may be barking up the wrong tree, but I'm a long time poster, looking to gain some type of edge through knowledge. I understand what +EV means, but I don't necessarily know how to find it. I'm not looking for winners served on a golden platter....I'm certainly willing to do some work, but I'm looking for a kick in the right direction, to start turning some type of profit.

And if possible, please don't just paste a link to another thread that is 30 pages and convoluted about data mining or the like.

Thanks for reading guys, and don't forget to check the attached excel file.

[HUY]

I didn't read the excel but you have a gambling problem, consult a doctor.

[GunShard]

I saw your spreadsheet, you are daily bettor, I am a spot bettor.

I pick my spots when I gamble, it requires patience. Your style of betting is what most people do. I don't like daily betting because it's similar to an impulsive gambler.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at. Do your research.
2. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
10. Never bet on double digit favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string or 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".

[MonkeyF0cker]

And if possible, please don't just paste a link to another thread that is 30 pages and convoluted about data mining or the like.

i.e. Don't make me do any work.

Whatever.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I saw your spreadsheet, you are daily bettor, I am a spot bettor.

I pick my spots when I gamble, it requires patience. Your style of betting is what most people do. I don't like daily betting because it's similar to an impulsive gambler.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at. Do your research.
2. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
10. Never bet on double digit favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string or 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".

This is the response you deserve.

[hutennis]

11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.

Never mind everything else, but this is borderline stupid.

Only players on my team can get injured?
What if player on another team will and I will benefit immensely?

Is not it all random and thus should not be consider at all?
How much thought have you given to your rules?

[Regul8er]

THanks for the responses boys!!

HUY....appreciate you stating the obviouS, glad the community picked up a quality new member

Gunshard......OK great, your a spot bettor. Any insight to how you find an edge? Some of your rules are obvious, some are just plain bad, such as teams with homecourt tend to win.

Moneyfocker.....appreciate you checking in. Why is it so wrong I don't want to sift through that threads that are extremely convoluted? Looking for some advice, something original. Admitting I have a problem, and willing to put in the legwork is my message here.

I would like to become a more intelligent bettor, an emotionless spot bettor, but clearly don't know how. Have good scraping skills and am proficient with Microsoft access. Can this at any point help me realize edges?

[tukkk]

I don't want to sift through that threads that are extremely convoluted

willing to put in the legwork is my message here

is that called an oxymoron?

[VLR100]

Find a small market and start scraping opening and closing lines. Gather data on the sport. After a while, use regression analysis on one set of games to find value, see if it applies to another set of games. If it does, keep scraping odds and data and see if this approach is still profitable going forward. If you can establish statistically that you have an edge, pound the market until you're banned/limited. Rinse and repeat. If you want to read the details of how to do this, there is plenty of extremely convoluted threads on "data mining or the like" in the tank you can find easily.

[Regul8er]

tukkk....not meant to be an oxymoron, but can see how you would take it that way.
Sometimes I have a difficult time diciphering through what's good info and what's bad info. When I read through some of those threads, I find myself scratching my head after an hour. I guess nothing in this world is really cut and dry though.

VLR......thanks for offering a suggestion and some advice. Do you have any good sites where I could dig through for openings and closers?

Thanks Gentlemen.

[tukkk]

if you can scrape, why not get a solid db for starters

[davidchong]

numbers are fine, youre on top of 60% players

[Regul8er]

Mr. Chong......I would venture to say I'm on top of more then 60% of players.

Thought I had a problem with my data, because I know for a fact I haven't lost this much over the last 5 years.

All of my losses were at the same book, which offers a 25-50% rebate on losses........so when looking at dollars and cents, I need to clip about 40% of my losses, as it shouldn't go against my bottom line.

Reality is the numbers of wagers, percentages and units remain unchanged, and the results are far from impressive.

[newbottles]

Mr. Chong......I would venture to say I'm on top of more then 60% of players.

Thought I had a problem with my data, because I know for a fact I haven't lost this much over the last 5 years.

All of my losses were at the same book, which offers a 25-50% rebate on losses........so when looking at dollars and cents, I need to clip about 40% of my losses, as it shouldn't go against my bottom line.

Reality is the numbers of wagers, percentages and units remain unchanged, and the results are far from impressive.

This might be an ignorant question, but how does it work where a book gives you a 25-50% rebate on losses? Is this some sort of rollover/reduced juice alternative?