1. 06-21-12 10:05 PM #1
    MasterP10
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    Edge estimate

    I came across this article and wanted to know if anyone agrees or disagrees with the estimated edge?


    If you make the fair line on a game -205/+205 and they have the game -192/+180 (no vig = 184), then you believe there is "value" in the -192. The implied WP of -192 is 65.75% and at -205, you believe the team has a 67.21% chance of winning so your edge is 1.46%.
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  2. 06-21-12 10:08 PM #2
    rsigley
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    win prob * decimal odds -1
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  3. 06-22-12 05:01 PM #3
    WONOFTHEGUYS
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    yes
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  4. 06-23-12 02:45 AM #4
    buby74
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    Your edge is 2.22% 67.21/65.75 - 1
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  5. 06-23-12 06:41 AM #5
    tukkk
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    Quote Originally Posted by MasterP10 View Post
    they have the game -192/+180 (no vig = 184), then you believe there is "value" in the -192. The implied WP of -192 is 65.75%
    i wonder why everybody loses when they are so ignorant to even double-check the basic numbers
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  6. 06-23-12 11:58 AM #6
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by tukkk View Post
    i wonder why everybody loses when they are so ignorant to even double-check the basic numbers
    Where is the mistake, looks OK to me? Don't you need to use the price you actually got rather than the no-vig line when calculating edge?
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  7. 06-23-12 01:35 PM #7
    tukkk
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Where is the mistake, looks OK to me? Don't you need to use the price you actually got rather than the no-vig line when calculating edge?
    there is no mistake with the info in this thread, both ways, either with dec. odds or implied % result is the same (2.23%)

    i just thought of the "article" and accidently quoted only part of what i wanted, my bad
    i didnt pay attention, it looks like my critique is towards OP, sorry
    Last edited by tukkk; 06-23-12 at 01:41 PM.
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    peacebyinches gave tukkk 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  8. 06-23-12 08:14 PM #8
    peacebyinches
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    +2 points for tukkk

    ty again
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  9. 06-23-12 10:06 PM #9
    MasterP10
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    I came up with 2.22%

    I think the article is wrong.
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  10. 06-24-12 12:18 PM #10
    uva3021
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    your edge is your p - implied p, and you should only make a wager when p*decimal > 1, or if p>implied p

    regardless it doesn't matter, your stake is (p-implied p)/(1-implied p), so calculating the edge is meaningless
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