Has anyone explored the idea of identifying and focusing on high-volatility matchups rather than trying to cap all games equally using the same analysis? In other words, games that are likely to produce a larger range of possible outcomes due to situational factors (i.e., injuries, road status, emotional state of teams, storylines, etc.). Those games sem to have more "right sides" and do not subject bettors as much to bad beats. Presumably, the lines in games with many fixed constants and consistent starting pitchers, for example, would be more likely to be accurate and trying to beat them is usually a -EV proposition.
If anyone has factored this assessment into the preliminary stages of handicapping a game, I'd be interested to hear about it. Also,what metrics people use to evaluate these factors. Thanks.