1. #1
    parlayin
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    Analyzing volatility of game matchups

    Has anyone explored the idea of identifying and focusing on high-volatility matchups rather than trying to cap all games equally using the same analysis? In other words, games that are likely to produce a larger range of possible outcomes due to situational factors (i.e., injuries, road status, emotional state of teams, storylines, etc.). Those games sem to have more "right sides" and do not subject bettors as much to bad beats. Presumably, the lines in games with many fixed constants and consistent starting pitchers, for example, would be more likely to be accurate and trying to beat them is usually a -EV proposition.

    If anyone has factored this assessment into the preliminary stages of handicapping a game, I'd be interested to hear about it. Also,what metrics people use to evaluate these factors. Thanks.

  2. #2
    flocko76
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    I'm looking at pitch counts (anything over 110), along with days between starts, (sometimes there might be 4 sometimes 5) along with having pitched a complete game. I would expect these pitchers to be less effective in their next start. I'm still new at this so I don't have any data base but espn has all this info on their daily matchups.

  3. #3
    Juret
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    I have a factor as a dummy in a regression model that, everything else held equal, augments the expected scoring when the dummy is set to 1. Higher expected scoring obviously makes the outcome more volatile, which can be made evident via the, for the sport, adequate distribution. It's quite fun to play around with plotted distributions in Excel and see how the shape changes for different expected totals.

  4. #4
    GunShard
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    It depends on the sport, find out which factor works and which factor does not work.

    Home field/court advantage is one of the most important factors when capping a game.

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