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Fact: The closing line is efficient
Fact: The best predictor of the closing line is the current line
Fact: Beat the closing line and you make money
Fact 1 + Fact 2 + Fact 3 = Beat the current line and you will beat the closing line more often than not and make money
Corollary: Hundreds if not thousands of people have done and are doing this successfully
End of thread
I sense a long, arduous, confounding ramble coming in the near future.Originally Posted by mathdotcom
Something tells me otherwise.
Spidey sense is tingling.
There is a disturbance in the force.
Looks good to me.
Before you close the thread one question.
Corollary: Hundreds if not thousands of people have done and are doing this successfully
End of thread
Hundreds if not thousands are doing it out of how many millions trying?
No matter how you slice it, chances look pretty fricking tiny.
So, before risking money trying to handicap something you don't completely understand -tough market, would not it be a good idea to handicap something you should understand pretty well -yourself.? And it's free
Last edited by hutennis; 09-17-12 at 10:08 PM.
yes and avoid all other challenges in life and enjoy mediocrity
Is fighting 99% odds against you with very uncertain pay off is the only way to avoid mediocrity?
What about picking up challenge with 30% success rate?
Or 25%?
I don't think this is as profitable as it might appear to the untrained eye. This is because I believe that you will find that slow moving books have one or both of the following qualities:
a) They have higher juice than the book against whom they appear to be slow (so they can afford to be a slow).
b) They ban winning players.
Is beating the sports betting market the only way to avoid mediocrity?
All four statements are true.
But how does this corollary follow from the aforementioned facts? It doesn't, not more than does the statement: "There are thousands of people that have won the lottery."
Fact: Pinny closer isn't always efficient. Don't tell me otherwise, i watch them and others for as long as they exist, and in most U.S. sports the Greek was much sharper, even with higher juice. And that's cos they don't move on air, while Pinny always does with an automated system.
Are you saying Pinny often big-moves a line without strong bets received (barring injury or similar events)?
I always think since Pinny attracts both sharps and whales because of low juice and high limit, and can afford moving freely as long as the market is already a green up to them, thus making it often less "accurate" than pro shops like Greek and BM. So I kind of agree with your conclusion, but I really don't know.
How does pinny auto move on air?
What does greek boot players for chasing pinny steam?
Because i played big arbs back then, and they did move on my square layoffs.
Obviously not the NFL where they take 50k or something, but you get the idea.
These days they often only take 10k on mlb games short before game time, if you'd place a square max bet you see what happens.
And yea Greek locks your account on steam, but afaik only on the really early lines which had some big jumps, noticed it mainly on NBA totals. I don't think they care when it's closer to game time, and we talking closing lines ^^
Last edited by Monte; 09-18-12 at 10:47 AM.
If Brownian Motion applies to the general nature of line movement then the direction of movement is merely a consequence of the first move. And will move at a rate sqrt(2pi/n), where n = total volume wagered
Thus line movement says little other than the initial direction of movement, which may very well be random personal subjectivity.
lol of course there are other ways to avoid mediocrity. if your attitude toward sports betting is that its incredibly challenging and thus shouldnt be done then you will never conquer sports betting. if you have a similar attitude toward everything then you will live a life of mediocrity
I'm digressing a bit, but a rule I have in life is the following:
If you come to realize that something you are trying to do is difficult then you will probably never do it.
This stems from my belief that if you are exerting significant effort to do something then you're doing it wrong.
This makes a lot of sense.
Effortless performance is always sign of professionalism in skill based operations.
In speculative fields it is easy to get confused though.
Everything feels nice and easy when you getting lucky.
If you live buy this rule then gambling is not for you. Move on.
usually i fade public opinions unless i feel the line is not justified or overplayed back by others who think the same way.
I haven't visited this site in a good while. I decided to have a look today and saw that a thread that I had started over 3 years ago had become active again. After patiently reading over all of the responses, I now remember why I haven't been here for awhile. There doesn't seem to be any point in watching a bunch of guys trying to prove how smart they are to each other.
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