Best time to bet teasers?
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StackinGreenSBR Posting Legend
- 10-09-10
- 12140
#36Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#37I forgot to mention this in my previous but your point is rather moot because you are talking about "buying" points as opposed to playing them from the teaser card...I mentioned this before several times over the years...books like 5dimes and Heritage give you much better odds from their teaser menus where crossing the 0 doesn't effect you in terms of overpricing or getting charged 2 full points going from 1- to +1 as opposed to doing a parlay and buying the points yourself.Comment -
Waterstpub87SBR MVP
- 09-09-09
- 4102
#38Teasers are mostly square bets, with some rare exceptions
Using the value off of the half point calculator: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/ and current nfl lines:
Sharp Teaser:
Oak 2.5 to 8.5
Carolina 2 to 8
Was 2 to 8
Going from 2.5 to 8.5 is the equivalent of -311.6 (75.71%)
From 2 to 8 is the equivalent of -320.5 (76.22%)
To calculate odds of winning: .7571*.76.22*.76.22 = 43.98% Win Rate, 165 payout = 37.74%, 6.24% edge
Super Square Teaser
SF 12 to 18
CIN -10.5 to -4.5
NYJ 4.5 to 10.5
SF = -207.7 ( 67.50%)
CIN= -219.9 (68.74%)
NYJ = -220.2 ( 68.77%)
Odds of winning= .319 vs 165 payout = .3774, -5.8% advantage, more than double straight bets
Teasing through 0
BUF -2.5 to 3.5
TB -2 to 4
DAL -2 to 4
BUF to 0 is -119.6 from 0 to 3.5 -219.8 (68.73%)
TB to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)
DAL to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)
Winning %= .335523 vs 165 payout = .3774, -4.2% advantage, almost double straight bets
So in reality, the only time one should bet teasers is when one can bet a sharp teaser. Books shade lines however, to protect themselves.Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#39Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#40But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
-
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#42But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.
and the vast majority of people who gamble wind up losing in the long so who is the sucker?!...at least I have a proven track record winning consistently over the years....validated and verified here on SBR...at the end of the day, who in the fuk cares as long as you're winning, staying in the black, and making profits?Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#43yeah, but who has the money to make the same wager an "infinite" number of times?...the object is to win and come out ahead at the end of the day...you make it sound like gambling is all about making a straight wager...hell, if it was that easy, we'd all be millionaires.Comment
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