Best time to bet teasers?

**Da Manster!** · 09-27-17, 10:32 PM

I bet them year round and have made good bank over the years in all sports...football, baseball, and college hoops...I have many threads on here at SBR with real money wagers and tickets to prove it...

...PS...I usually do tease the dogs...very seldom do I tease a favorite down but that's just me...just like in MLB, I usually play totals only and normally play the over, not under...in terms of timing or when to play them it really doesn't make a difference as long as you feel comfortable with the wager...the reason why I love playing 13PT teasers at 5dimes is because they normally jack up the lines on dogs!...I'm talking about like an extra 1.5 - 2.5 points higher than the current line from vegas and other offshore books!...so in essence, it's actually the equivalent of doing a 14.5 - 15.5 point teaser at a great value and price!...

**Eddy Munny** · 09-27-17, 11:06 PM

My vote goes to 4:45 pm CST. Great time to bet teasers imo.

9:14 am EST a close 2nd.

**A4K** · 09-28-17, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

My vote goes to 4:45 pm CST. Great time to bet teasers imo.

9:14 am EST a close 2nd.

You aren't even close. Everyone knows the best time is 11:53 PST on a Wednesday

**BigdaddyQH** · 09-28-17, 11:11 AM

The best time to bet teasers is NEVER. Only people who do not trust their wagering skills bet teasers. Extremely poor odds and low payoffs. I don't care what others in here may claim. Teasers are a suckers bet.

**StackinGreen** · 09-28-17, 12:05 PM

Regarding newbies, BigD is correct, but let me say it's contextual. Teasers can be a good supplement to an already known solid 'capper, if played right. He is absolutely correct that if you see a man that plays only teasers and no straights, try to get his opinions on straight games and fade those til kingdom come. Usually also you'll find he is a favorites bettor, usually exclusively favorites.

**Drydin** · 09-28-17, 12:22 PM

The best time to bet teasers is NEVER. Only people who do not trust their wagering skills bet teasers. Extremely poor odds and low payoffs.

I absolutely disagree here in Vegas yeah the odds are terrible but a few offshore books offer good odds. I love 5Dimes 2-Team 7pt ties win teasers only -128.

I seem to remember a thread from the past (which I cant find) that had recommendations about the timing of betting teasers.

A big part of betting teasers is being able to look at the line and know which way it is going to move, just as in normal straight wagers. If your adept in handicapping football this is not hard i turn a lot of my 7pt ties win teasers into really 7.5-9pt ties win teasers by closing line because of this. Use the open slot function in teasers you don't hafta take all your teams at once it's a huge advantage to player if done correctly.

You also don't just look for teams you like but numbers that are good for teasing also. Easiest example is a 7pt favorite you would never use a 7pt teaser to take to 0 at -128 you would use a 6pt ties win at -105. Know what key numbers to look for which ones to avoid make every pt on teaser count and you will profit from them. There is a reason why teaser odds have gotten worse and worse over the years they are beatable.

**RonPaul2008** · 09-28-17, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by LtDementia

I seem to remember a thread from the past (which I cant find) that had recommendations about the timing of betting teasers. Do you bet underdog teasers early or wait until just prior to gametime? How about teasing favorites? Early or gametime?

Or maybe it doesn't make a difference.

LT

Never. In the past there were +EV teasers in the NFL only. Those were teasing from 1.5/2/2.5 to 7.5/8/8.5 only. They long since took away the value by raising the juice on teasers.

**Eddy Munny** · 09-28-17, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by A4K

You aren't even close. Everyone knows the best time is 11:53 PST on a Wednesday

AM or PM? I'll give it a whirl and report back.

**pimike** · 09-28-17, 11:36 PM

Tonight is a great example.

Tons teasing packers to total. Well smart play was Packers and over as seoerate plays. You would had won both. Tease was a waste.

**deezysbaitshop** · 09-29-17, 05:37 AM

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

**A4K** · 09-29-17, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

Wow, that's a crazy statistic. Where did you get that stat from?

**KVB** · 09-29-17, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

**StackinGreen** · 09-29-17, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

**Eddy Munny** · 09-29-17, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by A4K

Wow, that's a crazy statistic. Where did you get that stat from?

From his ass.

**Da Manster!** · 09-30-17, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Regarding newbies, BigD is correct, but let me say it's contextual. Teasers can be a good supplement to an already known solid 'capper, if played right. He is absolutely correct that if you see a man that plays only teasers and no straights, try to get his opinions on straight games and fade those til kingdom come. Usually also you'll find he is a favorites bettor, usually exclusively favorites.

well, no he's not correct...as a matter of fact the complete opposite...playing a teaser is no different than doing straight wagers...depends if you pick the right teams or not...(i.e. there were times when I needed the extra points and other times when I didn't).. and as far as solid cappers go, who really gives a fuk as long as the player wins consistently...(cough, cough...

)...and I agree with you on the favorites theory, but if you noticed in my threads over the years, the vast majority of the time I'll play dogs and get much better value and bang for both your number and buck!...

**Da Manster!** · 09-30-17, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The best time to bet teasers is NEVER. Only people who do not trust their wagering skills bet teasers. Extremely poor odds and low payoffs. I don't care what others in here may claim. Teasers are a suckers bet.

says the guys that bets -2000 ML all the time!.......and you have the nerve to call other people suckers?!...

**deezysbaitshop** · 10-07-17, 07:08 PM

Just wanted to check in to see if the group has taken another look at teasers? Any other thoughts on my cover or lose stats I "pulled from my ass"?

**Bsims** · 10-07-17, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

Just wanted to check in to see if the group has taken another look at teasers? Any other thoughts on my cover or lose stats I "pulled from my ass"?

I haven't taken the time to check these percentages against my files. But, assuming they are true, they're meaningless. Favorites winning and covering 83% of the time mean they win and don't cover 17% of the time. Hence thr dogs lose the game and cover 17% of the time. But they also cover when they actually win the game. I'd bet this happens about 33% of the time.

**Yazworm91** · 10-23-17, 01:34 AM

I've noticed 5d shading lines that effect teasers. Which I tease up almost exclusively and they generally shade against the favorite which works in my favor. I need to get better about doing open teasers.

**StackinGreen** · 10-23-17, 01:33 PM

Let's be real, quick update: Wong Teaser players are getting their asses handed to them this year. Will it turn around? Possibly. But it is crazy right now.

**bitcoinLuke** · 10-23-17, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

Dude, that is the biggest load of crap I've ever seen. If favorites won and covered 83% of time, every dipshit on here would be a billlionare

**Plaza23** · 10-24-17, 12:21 AM

I've only found teasers to be +EV on certain football lines.

For instance, say a team is -3.5. If you get a 8 point teaser, that then turns into a +4.5 +4.5 in football is one of the best values to be on. The difference in +2.5 and +4.5, is far more important than +4.5 and +6.5.

Basically, a point in football (in terms of talking about line spreads) are no created equal. There's far more value in going from -6.5 to -7.5, than say for instance -25.5 to -26.5. So if you can use your teasers to exploit those advantages, then they are worth it.

**StackinGreen** · 10-24-17, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by Plaza23

I've only found teasers to be +EV on certain football lines.

For instance, say a team is -3.5. If you get a 8 point teaser, that then turns into a +4.5 +4.5 in football is one of the best values to be on. The difference in +2.5 and +4.5, is far more important than +4.5 and +6.5.

Basically, a point in football (in terms of talking about line spreads) are no created equal. There's far more value in going from -6.5 to -7.5, than say for instance -25.5 to -26.5. So if you can use your teasers to exploit those advantages, then they are worth it.

This is the basis for the Wong Teasers, yes, but as I said a few posts ago, they are getting hurt fairly big so far this year.

**LT Profits** · 10-24-17, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by deezysbaitshop

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, Vegas ATS Favorites Win AND Cover 88% of the time.

The books will happily pay out all those teasers vs Dog ML.

You phrased this wrong but I know what you are trying to say:

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, when Vegas ATS Favorites Win SU they Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, when Vegas ATS Favorites Win SU they Cover 88% of the time.

**Plaza23** · 10-24-17, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You phrased this wrong but I know what you are trying to say:

In NFL Regular Season games since 1978, when Vegas ATS Favorites Win SU they Cover 83% of the time.
In NFL Playoff games since 1978, when Vegas ATS Favorites Win SU they Cover 88% of the time.

Since 2000, ATS Favorites winning SU cover 74% of the time.

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http://www.sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E+1999+and+line+%3C+0+and+margin+%3E+0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

If it were 83%, nobody would take ML's on favorites. But at 74, it makes alot more sense.

**LT Profits** · 10-24-17, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by Plaza23

Since 2000, ATS Favorites winning SU cover 74% of the time.

404 Not Found

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E+1999+and+line+%3C+0+and+margin+%3E+0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

If it were 83%, nobody would take ML's on favorites. But at 74, it makes alot more sense.

I didn't check what he said for accuracy, I was merely interpreting what he was trying to say. They way he phrased it, made it sound like favorites cover 80+% of the time.

**bitcoinLuke** · 10-25-17, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Plaza23

I've only found teasers to be +EV on certain football lines.

For instance, say a team is -3.5. If you get a 8 point teaser, that then turns into a +4.5 +4.5 in football is one of the best values to be on. The difference in +2.5 and +4.5, is far more important than +4.5 and +6.5.

Basically, a point in football (in terms of talking about line spreads) are no created equal. There's far more value in going from -6.5 to -7.5, than say for instance -25.5 to -26.5. So if you can use your teasers to exploit those advantages, then they are worth it.

Thats a terrible idea. Crossing zero is a big no no.

**GunShard** · 10-25-17, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The best time to bet teasers is NEVER. Only people who do not trust their wagering skills bet teasers. Extremely poor odds and low payoffs. I don't care what others in here may claim. Teasers are a suckers bet.

True. Both Teasers and Parlays are sucker bets.

**Da Manster!** · 10-25-17, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by bitcoinLuke

Thats a terrible idea. Crossing zero is a big no no.

that's bullshit...a misconception and a misnomer...there are lots of times when the team favored by 3 - 6 points winds up losing by a FG..conversely, someone that teased the same wager crossing the 0 and getting those + points wound up winning.

**Da Manster!** · 10-25-17, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

True. Both Teasers and Parlays are sucker bets.

the only sucker bets are the ones you lose...

**LT Profits** · 10-26-17, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

that's bullshit...a misconception and a misnomer...there are lots of times when the team favored by 3 - 6 points winds up losing by a FG..conversely, someone that teased the same wager crossing the 0 and getting those + points wound up winning.

It is not a "misnomer", it is basic math. You are being charged for 2 full points going from -1 to +1 while that move is effectively only 1 point because there is no such thing as a -0.5 spread.

**Bsims** · 10-26-17, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

True. Both Teasers and Parlays are sucker bets.

Someone please explain why lots of people believe parlays are sucker bets. If the parlay offers true odds by multiplying the individual odds together AND you have a positive expected return on each, then the expected return for the parlay is higher than the expected return for each wager. Waterstpub87 pointed this out in a response to the thread "Parlays and expected returns" in this forum. But as HeeeHAWWWW also pointed out, the variance increases.

There are some very thoughtful people who post in this forum, we can learn a lot from them.

**Da Manster!** · 10-26-17, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It is not a "misnomer", it is basic math. You are being charged for 2 full points going from -1 to +1 while that move is effectively only 1 point because there is no such thing as a -0.5 spread.

I get all that, LT...I'm talking about in terms of either winning or losing the wager.

**Da Manster!** · 10-26-17, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It is not a "misnomer", it is basic math. You are being charged for 2 full points going from -1 to +1 while that move is effectively only 1 point because there is no such thing as a -0.5 spread.

I forgot to mention this in my previous but your point is rather moot because you are talking about "buying" points as opposed to playing them from the teaser card...I mentioned this before several times over the years...books like 5dimes and Heritage give you much better odds from their teaser menus where crossing the 0 doesn't effect you in terms of overpricing or getting charged 2 full points going from 1- to +1 as opposed to doing a parlay and buying the points yourself.