Last year I fooled around a bit on an analysis I called WL Strings. Unfortunately I started after the football season started. I really think it would be effective only for the first few games of a season. And I think it's most likely to work for CFB since there isn't any pre-season. I've decided to share it in this forum as the project moves along. I'd welcome suggestions or questions.
The theory starts with a couple of assumptions. First, I believe the final lines are the results of bookies opening lines, sharps, and the public's wager patterns. In effect, the line reflects the overall perceived value of a team. This perceived value increases or decreases with the results of a team's games. These perceived changes are then reflected in the lines for the next games.
The question then becomes, do these changes over or under state reality? In other words, are lines moved too much, or too little? I am working on a program to address this question. I have a file with 10 seasons of CFB results. It has 6,976 games (I only use games between major colleges).
The program looks at each games final scores and the spread. It assigns a W, L, or P based on whether a team covered or not. Last year's version did not consider how much a team covered by. This year I plan on setting a range of how far from the spread will be considered a push and then generating the results.
That's enough for now, I've got to get back to the program.
The theory starts with a couple of assumptions. First, I believe the final lines are the results of bookies opening lines, sharps, and the public's wager patterns. In effect, the line reflects the overall perceived value of a team. This perceived value increases or decreases with the results of a team's games. These perceived changes are then reflected in the lines for the next games.
The question then becomes, do these changes over or under state reality? In other words, are lines moved too much, or too little? I am working on a program to address this question. I have a file with 10 seasons of CFB results. It has 6,976 games (I only use games between major colleges).
The program looks at each games final scores and the spread. It assigns a W, L, or P based on whether a team covered or not. Last year's version did not consider how much a team covered by. This year I plan on setting a range of how far from the spread will be considered a push and then generating the results.
That's enough for now, I've got to get back to the program.
