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First to Score Probablity
Let's say team A's probability to score on each possession is PA, and team B is PB. If team A gets ball first, is there a "simple" formula to calculate the probability for team A to score first? Like a formula to use in spreadsheet?
Yes, I want spoon feed, and flame if you want.
In the two first possessions, the odds of each team scoring first are:
A: Pa
B: (1-Pa)(Pb)
If you assume someone scores, then the probability of A scoring first is Pa / [ Pa + (1-Pa)(Pb)]
You can get to that conclusion from using an infinite series, or limiting the probability space.
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Justin7, thanks.
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wrongturn gave Justin7 12 SBR Point(s) for this post.