[VLR100]

I've been looking at the 'anytime' goalscorer markets, while most bookmakers include an eye watering overround, exchanges at least provide an opportunity to bet without paying ridiculous juice.
Anyway, has anyone any idea how to effectively price these markets? Of course, simply taking a player's total goals scored over a number of matches divided by the number of matches is useless, given that a player can score multiple goals in the same match. However, I've thought of two other approaches. Either dividing the number of matches in which a player scores by the total number of matches over a given time period, OR taking the percentage of the team's total goals scored by the player, then utilising the odds of the total goals markets to project the number of goals the team is expected to score. Using this expectation, a probability for the player scoring in the match can be calculated.
Before I continue further research, am I wasting my time here? Or is there a more effective way to price these markets?

[That Foreign Guy]

I hope you mean % of the starting lineup's season goals.

I doubt you'll beat the overround but it is worth a try (and may produce some good cover plays).

[VLR100]

Forgot about that, thanks. I'll be mostly using exchanges, usually enough liquidity on the bigger games to make it worthwhile (for me at least, doubt it for anyone with serious bank).

[ODDmaster]

I think in that kinda bet's lines are way too sharp to even try.