[yisman]

DSI had Kings 2.5 +180/-220
5 Dimes had Kings 2 -115/-105

Did I get ripped off by betting over 2.5?

[byronbb]

Sbr poisson calc says +180 no good, but that as a predictive tool I am sure is up for debate.

[Dark Horse]

If you bet NHL you know that a late 2-1 score, with a goalie being pulled, can quickly turn your winning under 5 into a push. The tying goal is worth two.

Articles could be written about 2-1 and 2-2 scores in the NHL. The amazing thing is that books don't offer totals for 60 minutes (at least none that I'm aware of).

[jgilmartin]

The amazing thing is that books don't offer totals for 60 minutes (at least none that I'm aware of).

Some non-US facing books do...SBO and IBC, for example. Really low limits, though, unsurprisingly.

[yisman]

If you bet NHL you know that a late 2-1 score, with a goalie being pulled, can quickly turn your winning under 5 into a push. The tying goal is worth two.

yes of course, that's why normally winning under 5s is very difficult

[Dark Horse]

It's not necessarily more difficult, but you get a lot of pushes (not added losses). If you know your winning expectation, you can decide how much juice is acceptable. The same for O/U 2 and 2.5 team totals.

5.5 goals is not affected by OT and the free goal. A 2-1 score with 1 or 2 minutes left only needs one tying goal to push the 5, but 5.5 goals is out of reach. With 10 minutes left and a 2-1, the O5.5 has usually lost as well, but the O5 can still push very easily. There's some 'fun' analysis there, and more so if you break it down per period.

[yisman]

that doesn't address the question. yes, that's why winning under 5s is much more difficult than winning under 5.5s, but everyone who bets totals knows that

[Dark Horse]

Winning under 5 is not harder than under 5.5, because a higher total is projected for games with a 5.5 total.

And if you think this issue doesn't address the question, good luck with your team totals.

[yisman]

How does this have to do with my question of what a half a goal is worth on a team total?

And under 5s do win less often than under 5.5s. That's a fact, because of the high likelihood of a push.

[Dark Horse]

lol

[yisman]

You can lol all you want. Look it up.

[Dark Horse]

You're the guy, turning out to be a total asshole, not understanding if he got ripped off or not. Do you think the 2 and 2.5 have the same value depending on whether the game is projected to be close or not?

[yisman]

You're being an asshole by ignoring the point of the thread.

If you don't want to be helpful, then go away.

I wanted to know generally how much a half goal is worth in NHL team totals. Either you don't know, or you do know and you just enjoy being a jackass.

[Dark Horse]

Would you like a push frequency?

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you bet NHL you know that a late 2-1 score, with a goalie being pulled, can quickly turn your winning under 5 into a push. The tying goal is worth two.

Articles could be written about 2-1 and 2-2 scores in the NHL. The amazing thing is that books don't offer totals for 60 minutes (at least none that I'm aware of).

Yellowfin tuna is a species of fish in the ocean.

Just thought you might want to know something randomly unrelated and obvious as well.

[subs]

how much does the other team's total or the game total affect this?

i mean it is simple enough to have the push chart but does any1 know if playing a very good/bad offence/defence affects this by a large margin of error?

the distributions can't be the same, but i'm just guessing.

any1?

[Dark Horse]

Yellowfin tuna is a species of fish in the ocean.

Just thought you might want to know something randomly unrelated and obvious as well.

In a world where one goal magically turns to two the value of a half goal deserves to be placed in a larger context than just a push frequency. But keep up the little keyboard punk act. You're so knowledgeable.

[MonkeyF0cker]

In a world where one goal magically turns to two the value of a half goal deserves to be placed in a larger context than just a push frequency. But keep up the little keyboard punk act. You're so knowledgeable.

LMAO.

Because tying goals have never happened historically.

Any more lessons for us, professor?

[MonkeyF0cker]

P.S. - If you could read, you'd realize that he's asking about a team total to begin with.

[Thremp]

Dark Horse is using some stupid doublespeak to say that pushes are irrelevant to "winning". Apparently he's ignoring super basic knowledge of expectation to quibble over semantics.

Luckily this is irrelevant for me since I'm broke (until I get that loan) so you guys can eat all the rice I'd normally be dining on.

[Dark Horse]

LMAO.

Because tying goals have never happened historically.

Any more lessons for us, professor?

I'm well aware of push frequencies, and brought them up here, but I'm also aware of a better way to approach this particular problem. As far as teaching it to you, you have got to be kidding. Zero reason not to let you suffocate in your own arrogant stink.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm well aware of push frequencies, and brought them up here, but I'm also aware of a better way to approach this particular problem. As far as teaching it to you, you have got to be kidding. Zero reason not to let you suffocate in your own arrogant stink.

You brought all of that up so that you could post this posturing crap. LOL.

Tying goals happen. Great insight.

The OP was quite clearly asking for push frequencies. Obviously, you have a better approach.

Is that all that you came in this thread to say? Unfortunately, the approach that you proposed REQUIRES modeling the game which unquestionably must have helped the OP determine whether he made the right bet or not.

[Dark Horse]

I'm not the one posturing. Of course, nothing innovative could ever come from anybody not in your camp, and no thoughts out of your reach could be thought by others. Not only do you not understand that, but on top of it you're a completely miserable human being; judging from the way you express yourself here time and again. Why don't you go do something that will bring you some joy? Like that pal of yours. What's he washing now? Dishes or cars?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm not the one posturing. Of course, nothing innovative could ever come from anybody not in your camp, and no thoughts out of your reach could be thought by others. Not only do you not understand that, but on top of it you're a completely miserable human being; judging from the way you express yourself here time and again. Why don't you go do something that will bring you some joy? Like that pal of yours. What's he washing now? Dishes or cars?

Stating that ties must be broken in hockey is innovative?

Uhh. Okay.

[MonkeyF0cker]

From 2009...

It's similar to spreads. Get a book called Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It explains how to create push frequencies with a radius and determine your edge with that methodology. You'll need an accurate database of at least 5 seasons with scores and totals to accomplish this.

There are other methods to estimate your edge. For instance, if you're modelling games and you output a scoring distribution, you could extract your edge via the distribution. However, that's quite a bit more involved.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ver-under.html

OMG. I'm so innovative.

[mathdotcom]

Dark Horse when is your book coming out?

[mathdotcom]

Yisman if you want to bet these frequently you should get historical data on moneylines, totals, and game scores. Then you can create a table for relevant ranges of game totals and moneylines to estimate the probability of 2 goals or more, 2.5 goals or more, etc. (Been a while since i opened Wong's book but i assume this is what MF is referring to).

Or to be more precise you could use a logistic regression.

I dont have that data so i cant give you an approximate number.

Also do not listen to DH.

[Igetp2s]

When betting team NHL totals at DSI and Bookmaker - BEWARE. OT does not count, unlike every other book that offers this. I found this out the hard way. The over at DSI and Bookmaker will always be a bigger dog than anywhere else. Do not get burned on this.

[Thremp]

DH,

It is painting cars. But thanks.