[netinfo]

Hi,

I'm looking for MLB stats that indicate the percentage of games that have a margin of victory of one run. If this was discussed in an earlier thread, please post here the link. If not, any help is appreciated.

Thanks,

netinfo

[Pancho sanza]

Hi,

I'm looking for MLB stats that indicate the percentage of games that have a margin of victory of one run. If this was discussed in an earlier thread, please post here the link. If not, any help is appreciated.

Thanks,

netinfo

It varies a lot as the ML/total changes.

Be a little more specific and maybe I can help.

If you want it for every moneyline/total combo from pk to say -300, were talking over 60,000 lines of data.

[netinfo]

Pancho,

I'm referring to only the scores, not the odds.

For example:

Yesterday, there were 12 games. 3 of those games were decided by one run. Therefore, the Margin of Victory of 1 run percentage for yesterday was 25%.

I'm looking for such percentage data that goes back for a range of at least 5 years.

netinfo

[Pancho sanza]

pancho,

i'm referring to only the scores, not the odds.

For example:

Yesterday, there were 12 games. 3 of those games were decided by one run. Therefore, the margin of victory of 1 run percentage for yesterday was 25%.

I'm looking for such percentage data that goes back for a range of at least 5 years.

Netinfo

2008 28.0 %

2007 27.9 %

2006 27.8 %

2005 29.6 %

2004 26.3 %


2004-2008 27.8 %

[netinfo]

2008 28.0 %

2007 27.9 %

2006 27.8 %

2005 29.6 %

2004 26.3 %


2004-2008 27.8 %

Awesome, thanks!

netinfo

[hhsilver]

pancho,

that was quick. Can you do it for HOME FAVs of -120 to -190 ? what % of such home favs won by 1 run ?

thanks

[Pancho sanza]

pancho,

that was quick. Can you do it for HOME FAVs of -120 to -190 ? what % of such home favs won by 1 run ?

thanks

Still need to update my database for years 2007-2008, missing a bunch of lines.

heres 2001 - 2006, a 6 year run which should give you an idea.

Home Favs -120 - 190 6459

Games won by home team 3723

Games won by home team by 1 run 1114

[hhsilver]

thank you -- appreciate it

[Unitage]

great stuff pancho, could you please run these if you have time.
home teams from +100 to -110 lines.
and home dogs from +100 to +130
Thank you.

[Pancho sanza]

great stuff pancho, could you please run these if you have time.
home teams from +100 to -110 lines.
and home dogs from +100 to +130
Thank you.

From 2001 -2006


+100 -110

Games 1027
W 517
W by 1 run 176

+100 +130

Games 2516
W 1170
W by 1 run 395

[Justin7]

The bigger the favorite, the more likely that team is to win by exactly 1 run.

It's kind of counterintuitive.

[Pancho sanza]

The bigger the favorite, the more likely that team is to win by exactly 1 run.

It's kind of counterintuitive.

Justin, you meant overall I assume?

As a % of total wins, it actually goes down' eg, -250 favs wins 25 % of its games by 1 run, -300 wins 24 % of its games by 1 run etc.

[netinfo]

Pancho,

I have another request. Say you have the following scenario:

............... RL......................ML
Team A..... +1.5 (-odds)........(+odds)
Team B..... -1.5 (+odds)....... (-odds)

What percentage of games does Team B win by one run?

netinfo

[Pancho sanza]

Pancho,

I have another request. Say you have the following scenario:

............... RL......................ML
Team A..... +1.5 (-odds)........(+odds)
Team B..... -1.5 (+odds)....... (-odds)

What percentage of games does Team B win by one run?

netinfo

If I understand your question correctly, you want to know how often a favorite (on the ml) with + odds on the rl wins exactly by 1 run?

I dont have a run line database so can't help there.

[netinfo]

If I understand your question correctly, you want to know how often a favorite (on the ml) with + odds on the rl wins exactly by 1 run?

Yes.

I dont have a run line database so can't help there.

No problem, thanks for your contribution.

Take care,

netinfo