Nonetheless, the mere fact that you admit that the market can be manipulated, even if by only a very select group of people, and that it is possible to consistently beat the closing line proves that you don't really believe the market is efficient. Efficient markets aren't manipulated. You can't beat an efficient market. And that was the point of my original post, that sports gambling markets aren't efficient. You may not agree with me about why they are not efficient, but you've acknowledged, at least twice now, that they are not.