I was browsing through some online articles and I stumbled on this one from StatFox. Apologies if this topic has been covered in depth in the past (I didn't find anything in my quick search). IMO, it's worth a read.
Essentially, it discusses the validity of the revenge factor and teams looking ahead to future games, and the effect they have on actual ATS performance. The study was based on 3 years of NBA data from 2005-2008.
The results, briefly summarized:
Revenge Games: The Myth:
Teams perform better in games with the opportunity to get revenge on teams that embarrassed them previously in the same season (winning by 15+ points).
The Trends:
- ATS Rate for teams in revenge games: 46.6%
- ATS Rate for teams in revenge games on the road: 44.7%
- ATS Rate for teams in revenge games on the road when the game right before it was also on the road: 40.3%
Look Ahead Games: The Myth:
Teams are often assumed to look ahead to upcoming big matchups, leading to lower performance in the game directly before that revenge game (Look Ahead Game).
The Trends:
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games for teams with winning records: 43.3%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games for teams with losing records: 48.3%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games preceding revenge games against divisional rivals: 41.1%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games preceding revenge games against non-divisional teams from the same conference: 51.9%
- ATS Rate in Non-Conference games Look Ahead Games: 52.2%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games vs strong opponents: 44.5%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games vs weak opponents before a revenge game against a strong opponent: 37.8%
- ATS Rate in Look Ahead Games on the road before revenge games at home: 35.6%
- When a strong team faces two weak teams in a row, there is no effect on the ATS Rate, but the Over Rate in the first game rises to 56.9%
- ATS Rate in games preceding a 3 day break for the team: 42.1%
- ATS Rate in games preceding a 3 day break for a team when their next game is also at home: 38.1%
Combining Factors (Limited Sample Sizes):
- ATS Rate for strong teams against weak non-conference teams, preceding a game against a strong team: 40.4%
- ATS Rate for strong teams against weak non-conference teams at home, preceding a game against a strong team on the road: 26.3%
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-29-09 at 11:22 PM.
I've always felt that the notion of revenge games is horribly over-used, and the above findings indicates that the effect is not what people commonly believe. At the same time, the effect of teams looking ahead to big match-ups is shown to be a legitimate trend under certain circumstances.
I haven't actually put the trends to the test yet, but either way, it's an interesting bit of information.
Another thing about "revenge games" is that the team got beat by 15 + for a reason. Maybe they just don't matchup well with the team they want revenge against.
Sample sizes aren't given for all the stats, but for those that are, all but a couple of them are based on at least 125 games spanning the 3 seasons studied.
Peep: I totally agree. However, I still think the data has some value, particularly in showing trends towards poor ATS performance when playing a weak team before a strong one and when a team plays their last game before a few days break.
i'll start comparing the trends to team-specific data from this season and see if anything pops up as notable.
Old news actually, for both NBA and NFL. In the 80s, a number of folks had drilled out the "revenge/look ahead" factors. Actually, almost every "angle play" falls apart when examined.
Shows the value of maintaining long dbs to check things out.
The definition of 'revenge' in this case is either unorthodox or ignorant. A loss by 15+ points in the long NBA season means nothing. It would be different if a favorite was upset, and met that dog again within a reasonable amount of time. Example: the Suns were upset last night in Sacramento, and play the Kings again within a week. The Suns were embarrassed, the game is still fresh in their minds. I could see 'revenge' there.
But you can't really isolate one motivational angle without weighing it against others. A DD favorite, as the Suns will probably be, almost by definition is under-motivated in the NBA.
However it does show a poor SU performance in the revenge games, further taking away from the myth that teams will perform better in the game after losing to a rival.