[Romerowned]

My friend's bookie normally has lines at -105. However, when lots of action goes to one side, he'll change the odds to Even and -110. If even more action goes to the same side, it'll change to +105 and -115. The spread does not change, only the juice.

My question is, assuming the spread is correct and it is a 50/50 on which side covers, is it not +EV to always bet the +105 side? I'm a poker player and know very little about sports betting, but I know that if I'm getting 1.05 to 1 on a flip, I'll take that any day. So I was planning on just waiting till his book is unbalanced and always betting the +105 side. No research, no nothing. I trust vegas that the spread is a 50/50.

Am I correct in thinking this? Does this have a positive expectation for me?

[Justin7]

If it were a 50/50 bet, then yes, any bet at +105 has value. However, it probably is not a 50/50 bet if there is lopsided action.

If the whole market were -105/-105 (e.g., Pinnacle, Bookmaker and Hilton), that market is a 50/50 bet. If your bookie offered a bet at +105 or +110 when the rest of the market was 50/50, it is clearly a good bet.

[RickySteve]

Are you not including Cantor as a market barometer because it isn't on-screen, or other reasons?

[Justin7]

Are you not including Cantor as a market barometer because it isn't on-screen, or other reasons?

I don't know enough about them. Perhaps I should study them more?