[ABanks]

Hey everyone, I am not a math person or a programmer but I am trying to build a baseball model and had a few questions. Would it be possible to use the stat weighted runs created plus (wRC+) to predict how many runs a team would score in a given game? Let's say you were able to predict what each player's wRC+ would be for the season...would you then be able to predict how many runs they would score in a given game? If so, how? Are there much more accurate ways to predict runs than this? Any and all help/advice would be much appreciated. Thanks.

[Justin7]

Can you? Yes. Are there better ways? Yes.

If you know a team's lineup, and likely pinch hitters, you have a good grip on their offensive abilities.

You need to add pitching. Starter pitching, and bullpen.

Finally, consider park factors.

If you can accurately use those three, you can win (albeit slowly) at MLB hitting openers.

[ABanks]

Thanks Justin. I would be curious to know exactly how the oddsmakers come up with the openers....whether they use a model or instincts..etc. I noticed last season many times Betonline would be the first to post MLB openers but then would adjust them to match the next book that would release them..usually Bookmaker.