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Formulas ..
Hi I was wondering if someone can help me out with this, im searching for easy and fast formulas, on how to create Run Lines and/or Puck lines, how to create the Team Totals for NHL and MLB.
And if there is an easy formula to calculate halves times. Sorry if this questions were already on a different post but i being checking and reading and didnt see that.
THanks
I like money too. Would you like to go out for a milkshake to see what else we might have in common?
One of those Shamrock shakes from McDonald's sounds good right about now...
It has been asked, yes, however it is not something you are likely to find an accurate answer to on a public forum. If someone is able to create a model/formula that is more accurate than what the oddsmakers and/or other bettors are using, it would be totally counterproductive to share it with others, as it would eventually eliminate any edge they once had.Originally Posted by jorzavfa
Just my oppinion, but the main thing to remember is, when the opening line is released it is not an estimate of the linemaker's evaluation of who should win and by how much, but rather a very sophisticated and educated assessment of the puplic's preception in that same contest. Hence the linemaker's job is to set a line that will draw somewhere between 50/50 to 65/35 action. Example: If New England is favored by 8 1/2 and they win by 20 but the public was split 55/45 on the game it was a good line, but if the public bet New England 85/15, it was a bad line and if they bet it 25/75 it was a fantastic line.
it's not too hard. for the run lines and puck lines, just figure out how often the other team wins by 1. then take the team's odds of winning plus the odds of the other team winning by 1. put them together and you got it.
I call BS on this one. Show some examples by giving us Saturday's line before it's released just from the schedule. You noticed I gave you a day or two to do the calculations.
what is bs? tell me what part of my post is not true.
Any knucklehead can figure out how often a team wins by 1, Tom. Only the true greats can figure out how often they win by >2.5.
Show some examples by giving us Saturday's line before it's released just from the schedule. You noticed I gave you a day or two to do the calculations.
Very generous of you.
Lay off the weed.
Formulas are simple, you need to look for winning systems. Stuff like this:
Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-25-14 at 11:33 AM.
I was simply wanting some examples of how he thought the opening line should start out. Is that so hard?
that has nothing to do with the topic of this thread
<BR><BR>
It has everything to do with this thread and to TomG's post. I'm not saying he's not right. I just said I didn't believe he was right, and asked for an example to prove that he was right. And as you see, he's offered no kind of response at all. At the moment I still stand by my B.S. statement.
I'd love to find out how they set the opening line, or at least a close resemblence. Because I surely don't know how they figure it in Hockey or Baseball.
Last edited by WILLIE; 03-15-12 at 08:26 PM.
I know I have this silver platter in my hand for a reason. Sorry, sir, what was it you wanted me to put on it for you again?
Would you like a foot massage with my tongue afterwards too?
So you don't have a clue either I see.
Exactly. You're the only one who does.
given team a wins 40% of the time, time b wins 60% of the time, and team b wins by exactly 1 10% of the time.
probability team a wins + probability team b wins by exactly 1 = probability of team +1.5 covering = 50%.
quod erat demonstrandum willie
If this formula is really useful to predict a game outcome please ban me from the forum. I'm retarded.
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Take 1 week to try to figure that out. If you cant you are in the wrong place. That is the easiest thing to do. Wait to be able to calculate changing the players. How many point will add to the game player a and d when player b and c are is out. Now the same with the other team.
quote from TomG
given team a wins 40% of the time, time b wins 60% of the time, and team b wins by exactly 1 10% of the time.
probability team a wins + probability team b wins by exactly 1 = probability of team +1.5 covering = 50%.
quod erat demonstrandum willie
Thank you. But will this produce anywhere near the opening line?
Last edited by WILLIE; 03-16-12 at 01:52 AM.
Thanks, you're so helpful.
quod erat demonstrandum willie
I think Willie is right
if Tom was able to prove him wrong by posting his lines he would have
he cannot so he tried to beat around the bush
I CAN show how( or close to it at least) they set opening lines for NFL. And I just thought he might know how they figured Baseball and Hockey. But evidently not.
Ode to Texas Rangers 2½ System
by TomG
How are we alike?
Fedex, The Navy, TomG
All we do is shipz
Winning by 1 3 4 or 10 is as hard as it get otherwise you would be billionaire
You make stupid remarks. And no, you're not funny. You have a terrible sense of humor. It's not wry, or sarcastic, but totally senseless babble.
Willie my jokes are very funny. They make me laugh a lot. Problem is u don't get the jokes; the stats nor the math behind the games. I started to teach you and you started to kiss jerkmathes ass. Now do what I did and spend 3 or 4 years breaking your head to have a clue.
The real problem, is that you add absolutely zero to every thread that you have followed me into. I don't have all the answers, but I am trying to ask questions to get intelligent answers. Whereas you, ask no questions and only reply with off the wall responses that in no way can be construed as an enlightening answer or constructive criticism
Probetter1, since you are SO smart, why don't you explain....
Hi I was wondering if someone can help me out with this, im searching for easy and fast formulas, on how to create Run Lines and/or Puck lines, how to create the Team Totals for NHL and MLB.
And if there is an easy formula to calculate halves times. Sorry if this questions were already on a different post but i being checking and reading and didnt see that.
Afterall, that WAS the topic of the thread.
I was teaching u what got me to win 26 out of 30 been very selective and patient. But u already know more than me. Anyway you r right. I'm an asshole. Going back to capping. Won't be here much. Good luck. Love u.
[QUOTE=probettor1;14140323please ban me from the forum. I'm retarded.[/QUOTE]
Truer words have never been typed!!
Last edited by WILLIE; 03-16-12 at 02:33 PM.
You are funny Willie. I give that.
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WendysRox gave probettor1 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.