Originally Posted by
probettor1
Willie, i'm telling you this is not how stats works. You cant come with a fix number for every team. You might try it. But I suggest you to bet the minimum. You have to treat every team individually. Some teams are very bad away and unbeatable at home some other are not. New Orleans(nfl) for example were the best bet of the season playing at home, they cover the last 9 games played at home, winning for a hugh difference, and away they only cover 4 out of 9. You cant use a a cold(fix) number when working with stats.
Please, start reading ALL of someone's post. here is what I said:
To be very honest I've never found a great system for the NBA. The best starting point I've found is to use Statfox.com's avg. PF-PA records same as NFL and add 5 points for Home Court advantage.
Here's an example of 'let's see if it passes the smell test' that I sometimes use if at first glance the lineappears to be way off.
I like to reverse the playing site and see if I still like the game as much or more. (Just subtract -10 points to the away team to see what they would be if they were playing at home or add +10 to the home team to see what they would be if they were playing away.)
Hope this helps some. Like I said, these are just starting points I like to employ.