anyone do studies of various stats for NFL games and willing to share info on most significant stats? i have found point differential has about 50% correlation with winning future games.
Most significant variables for NFL games
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CamNewtonOutfitSBR Wise Guy
- 09-26-16
- 525
#1Most significant variables for NFL gamesTags: None -
BsimsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-03-09
- 827
#2opponent turnovers
Back in the 1970's I did a study and found the most significant contributor to a team's score was the number of opponents turnovers. I guess that's pretty much the same today.Comment -
KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#3
It's not the information, it's how you use it.
Another one to look at would be Yards per Pass Attempt.
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sshzRestricted User
- 06-02-15
- 575
#4Another very important stat, one that many don't look at but is followed closely by one of the best touts year in and year out is............
Yds. per 1st down
By getting some decent yardage on 1st down, it allows flexibility in your play calling in 2nd and 3rd downs, thus making it harder for the defense to defend.Comment -
MalikHusamSBR MVP
- 09-07-16
- 2685
#5remember to discount turnovers during garbagetime (when team goes no huddle for 15 str8 plays when down 7-14 pts with a couple mins left in 4q)Comment -
evo34SBR MVP
- 11-09-08
- 1032
#6It used to be easy money to bet on bad turnover teams when playing good turnover teams. It's not so simple these days.Comment -
jane2geoSBR Hustler
- 04-28-10
- 93
#7
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Roscoe_WordSBR MVP
- 02-28-12
- 3999
#8This is a good starting point.
http://archive.advancedfootballanaly...in-part-1.htmlComment -
evo34SBR MVP
- 11-09-08
- 1032
#9That link is 10 years old. it's worth reading, but certainly don't think the stats they identify haven't changed.Comment -
jane2geoSBR Hustler
- 04-28-10
- 93
#10Comment -
MalikHusamSBR MVP
- 09-07-16
- 2685
#11
I add that its impossible unless you stop yrself by turning itoverComment -
CamNewtonOutfitSBR Wise Guy
- 09-26-16
- 525
#12I heard turnovers were random meaning that say 1 year a team has tons of turnovers going for it, the next year the total will go down causing them to lose more games.
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CamNewtonOutfitSBR Wise Guy
- 09-26-16
- 525
#13Okay thanks but heres another follow up, assuming the team with the most favorable metric wins games is it this game itself or over the past season last year, or the last 2 games that wins the next game?
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Jupiter333SBR High Roller
- 01-15-14
- 102
#14Teams with a >.5/game turnover margin DISADVANTAGE cover the spread 54% of the time in weeks 5-15 in the NFL.
In other words, things regress to the mean and you are betting a losing proposition to bet on a team that has an turnover advantage based on past in-season results.
Same with yards per pass play....going opposite of what transpired before gives you a slight edge....a one yard/play net team advantage in yards passing/play versus their present opponent covers 48% of the time.
In other words, if team A throws for 8.0 yards/pass play and allows 7.0 yards/pass play and team B throws for 6.5 yards/pass play and allows 7.5 yards/pass play,....team B has historically going back to 1989 had a slight advantage against the spread, covering 51.6% of the time.Comment -
getlucky2winSBR MVP
- 01-14-12
- 1119
#15Best qb wins these daysComment -
temple2010SBR MVP
- 03-16-10
- 1369
#16you all know stats lie- just watch as many games as you can.Comment -
Jupiter333SBR High Roller
- 01-15-14
- 102
#18The issue being made earlier in the thread was that teams with a past in-season turnover margin advantage are good plays.
I pointed out that this is not true, which it isn't, and most people would make that deduction from my statement.
Since 2012 it is about a 50-50 proposition 167-170 ATS to be exact.Comment -
evo34SBR MVP
- 11-09-08
- 1032
#19The issue being made earlier in the thread was that teams with a past in-season turnover margin advantage are good plays.
I pointed out that this is not true, which it isn't, and most people would make that deduction from my statement.
Since 2012 it is about a 50-50 proposition 167-170 ATS to be exact.Comment
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