[NSN21]

Hey guys, I've been trying to wrap my brain around something that I've heard on more than one occasion but haven't been successful grasping it as of yet, so I'm hoping someone else may be able to simplify (or debunk?) this theory for me so I can understand it a little better.

Strictly talking football here... mostly NFL but also NCAA... I've heard various people in the industry mention that if you can beat the closing number by even a half point that it is a "good" bet (in my mind that means it's +EV).

Now I know that if you can beat a sharp book's closer (let's say Pinny) by even a half point on the numbers of 3, 7, or 10 then it's definitely a +EV bet, but I've also heard some say the same thing about other semi-key numbers such as 4 and 6.

Let's use 3 in the NFL for an example to start. If Pinny's closer is -3 (assuming normal juice for simplification), that means there's a 10% chance of a push (approximates used for simplification), a 45% chance to win, and a 45% chance to lose (using SBR's half point calculator for reference). If you can find an off market +3.5, you then swing the bet to 55% win 45% loss, which is clearly +EV since it's higher than the BE% of 52.4.

However, when using 4, for example, you would have a 48.5% of winning, 48.5% chance of losing, and a 3% chance to push if you lay the -4. If you can find a -3.5, you would then swing it to 51.5% chance of winning & 48.5% chance of losing, which is less than the BE% of 52.4, so that to me means it's still a -EV bet. (correct?)

The way I see it, you would need to at least gain 1 full point in order to make this a profitable bet (such as taking +7 when the market is +6), so I'm wondering why some consider -3.5 ticket when the market is -4 a good (+EV) bet in the absence of any other information or opinions? Perhaps our definitions of a "good" bet differ? Maybe laying the -3.5 helps to come back and go for a middle later (although laying -3.5 and taking +4.5 is not a profitable middle at -110).

Any thoughts? Just trying to understand this a little bit better. Thanks in advance for your input.

[LT Profits]

No the goal is to beat the NO-VIG Pinny closer Using your example, -3.5 -110 does not quite beat -4 +100 since the latter is equivalent to about -3.5 -106.

[AlwaysDrawing]

Football is a little different because of the way scoring works (mostly 7s and 3s), but in general if you beat the no-vig closer (as LT says), you'll be profitable.

[NSN21]

Thanks LT. Calculating the no-vig line of a given pointspread and trying to beat that makes much more sense. I don't know why that didn't cross my mind before. That's all part of the learning process.

[durito]

simply beating the no-vig closer isnīt gonna do it

[Winner_13]

durito are you saying if u beat the pinny no vig closer you are not going to profit regularly?

[Poogs]

simply beating the no-vig closer isnīt gonna do it

in a liquid major market like NFL? of course it will.

[durito]

So pinny is dealing no vig nfl lines now?

[Winner_13]

durito expand a bit more please. I am not following

[durito]

Say the fair line on a game is -103/103. Pinny has -104/-104. Say everyone in the market (except poogs of course) knows what the fair price is. Thus, no one bets the pinny line as there are no +ev plays offered so the closer is -104/-104.

No vig is +100 so poogs bets +101 with his local for $750 and like most of his wagers he has a -ev play.

[Poogs]

Anytime pinny deals a line right around 0 I would assume the no-vig falls anywhere in between and only make a bet if it was arbable.

Your facisination with me is scary though.

[durito]

Lol, why "right around 0".

What if itīs -200/180 or -5000/4000 is the no vig line now likely to be more or less accurate? How do you pinny isn`t dealing a biased line?

[Poogs]

compare to matchbooks line whenever its close

[durito]

lol

[Poogs]

dont even know why im engaging you...I dont know what your deal is with me. Obv its possible that pinny deals biased lines, but in the long run if you beat their no-vig line in major liquid markets you will make money.

[durito]

by how much 1cent 5cents? big difference.

you are a ******* tool that doesnīt understand anything

[Poogs]

u mad?

[durito]

nope. bored waiting for a plane. watching you make an ass of yourself at multiple forums at the same time.

[FourLengthsClear]

compare to matchbooks line whenever its close

Matchbook long ceased to be an originator of lines/moves.

[subs]

Say the fair line on a game is -103/103. Pinny has -104/-104. Say everyone in the market (except poogs of course) knows what the fair price is. Thus, no one bets the pinny line as there are no +ev plays offered so the closer is -104/-104.

No vig is +100 so poogs bets +101 with his local for $750 and like most of his wagers he has a -ev play.

i'm prolly not getting it but why would pinny deal such a line? doesn't it work off the market and pure volume...i mean i thought they put up a line and let the market shape that line...

or do u think they lean because of over exposure vs rec books?

[durito]

Let's say that is their opener. Since everyone in my hypothetical (except poogs) knows the fair line on the game, there are no bets at pinny. The vig itself if what prevents the odds from moving to where the no-vig is the fair line.

Whether they shade lines is another question.

[mikew]

Say the fair line on a game is -103/103. Pinny has -104/-104. Say everyone in the market (except poogs of course) knows what the fair price is. Thus, no one bets the pinny line as there are no +ev plays offered so the closer is -104/-104.

No vig is +100 so poogs bets +101 with his local for $750 and like most of his wagers he has a -ev play.

this makes sense. so beating the no-vig closing line still might not be enough to put you in profitable territory.

but like you ask, what is the cutoff? if you can beat the no-vig closer by 5 cents can you be confident? how much does it take for you to you ever be confident? this is the conceptual problem i'm having in regards to sports compared to poker.. its hard for me to quantify how big an edge really is..

[LT Profits]

this makes sense. so beating the no-vig closing line still might not be enough to put you in profitable territory.

but like you ask, what is the cutoff? if you can beat the no-vig closer by 5 cents can you be confident? how much does it take for you to you ever be confident? this is the conceptual problem i'm having in regards to sports compared to poker.. its hard for me to quantify how big an edge really is..

Best case scenario is finding a line scalpable at Pinny, so beating by 5 cents is usually good vs. 8-cent line.

[mikew]

Best case scenario is finding a line scalpable at Pinny, so beating by 5 cents is usually good vs. 8-cent line.

but then the question becomes scalpable when? if you find a scalp mid day on a basketball game, and take it, at that moment you may have a profitable bet, but there is still plenty of time for the line to move, and you may not even beat either the closer or the no-vig line

[LT Profits]

but then the question becomes scalpable when? if you find a scalp mid day on a basketball game, and take it, at that moment you may have a profitable bet, but there is still plenty of time for the line to move, and you may not even beat either the closer or the no-vig line

I am not talking about pure simultaneous scalping, what I mean is that if the line you get ends up being scalpable to Pinny's "vigged" closer by even 1 cent, you are probably +EV. i.e, you get +112 on dog, line closes -111/+103. You beat beat no-vig line by roughly 5 cents on a 8-cent line.

[mikew]

ok yeah i understand that. but lets say instead of at close, those lines are at 3pm for a basketball game. you get +112 while pinny is showing -111/+103. you think you have an arb and play the soft side. right now you can assume a +ev bet. however, theres still 5 hours to tip off. what if the line closes at -135/+125 ? if you are merely playing the inefficiency of the slow book, you have no way to know that the line will move for or against you. how do you handle this dilemma?

[LT Profits]

ok yeah i understand that. but lets say instead of at close, those lines are at 3pm for a basketball game. you get +112 while pinny is showing -111/+103. you think you have an arb and play the soft side. right now you can assume a +ev bet. however, theres still 5 hours to tip off. what if the line closes at -135/+125 ? if you are merely playing the inefficiency of the slow book, you have no way to know that the line will move for or against you. how do you handle this dilemma?

That question deserves it own thread since you are switching subjects from BTCL to scalping. . I am not sure if scalpers "handicap" games, but from a BTCL perspective, your scenario still comes down to whether or not you think the Pinny line will move further, as edge is judged against the closing line. In other words, go for the mid-day soft side if you cap the Pinny line at that time to be about where you expect it to close (or you think it will continue to move away from the soft side), NOT merely because the scalp exists. And if you cap the line to be closer to the soft line, you are actually predicting that the pinny line will move that way and the scalp will go away so pass on it (assuming your capping method is solid).

[LT Profits]

you have no way to know that the line will move for or against you.

As for this part, it this not the very essence of what you are trying to accomplish? Your entire goal should be to find some method that beats the closing line more often than not.

[mikew]

yes i guess this is what it comes down to. the goal should be to find some method that beats the closing line. i take it that you are suggesting that you cap and model games and bet early while the line is soft and if the line moves in your favor and you BTCL then you can be sure your capping is on the right track.

i was asking about the method of line shopping and looking for arb opportunities with slow books. in that case you can only be sure to BTCL if you are cross checking very near the close