[creditcardclown]

I see all these props on Pinny like "kobe bryant 29.5 points" and I looked at his year average PPG and it is exactly the same as the over under. Occasionally I'll see a line which is a few above or below the year average PPG and see that this is an adjustment to PPG being extra high or low in the current month. Is this how Pinny sets their line? Am I missing something? Seems too simple and too easy to beat.

[Le_Donk]

depends on the matchup, usually they just post a number and sharps will bet it down.
so its over for -150 and under +130

[Le_Donk]

go to 82games.com, pick a team and checkout the production by position.
i had some success this season with the player props
today i had chris bosh over 8.5 for only -116
http://www.82games.com/1112/1112SAC5.HTM
you can see that SAC opponents PFs gets a lot of rebounds ( because cousins gets a lot of touches in the post and the center usually tries to block cousins shot)
a few days ago, jazz @rockets
lowry total was set to 15 pts with low juice on both sides. jazz opponents pgs average 22.4 pts/48minute and lowry averages 20.6 pts/48. he finished the game with over 30

be careful when betting a player prop when he plays on the road.

[lecubs28]

Thanks for the link, Le Donk. That looks very helpful.

It's definitely not as simple as OP makes it out to be. There are lots of factors to consider, and I'm sure I am missing some. For one thing, I'm struggling to figure out how to calculate the value of a half point in NBA prop analyses. If I see Player X under 20 points at one book, but player X under 20.5 points at another book, I don't know how to calculate an exact number for a fair line at the 2nd book, based on the lines at the first book. I've approximated it, but my estimate relies on a small sample size because I haven't yet built databases. Can anyone give me a hint here?

Additionally, for calculating props: you'd probably wanna look at the player's stats over a large sample size, then look for any deviations over a small recent sample size, then look at the opposing team's defense and the pace, in tandem. But sometimes I'll see a line that is set above the player's long term and short term average, where the defense is solid, and the pace of the game is expected to be slow. I'll see this at a sharp book, and see that the OVER has been bet up 20 or 30 cents. And then I don't know if I'm missing something or if somebody clicked on the wrong box or what. Any hints?

[snapperman2]

"Conquering Risk" by Feustel and Howard has a good chapter on how to beat props.

[lecubs28]

I thought I read that they fallaciously treat points as a Poisson distribution.

[Poogs]

no they dont.^

I usually just compare a players average against the average defense vs the opposing defense.

[KevinLove]

"Conquering Risk" by Feustel and Howard has a good chapter on how to beat props.

thanks for this, i have been looking for some good readings on sports betting other than the forums!

[sportsbetjunkie]

It's never as simple as it appears to be. I do think it helps to understand certain probability formulas as you have described above. I have already learned new things while being here.

[subs]

no they dont.^

I usually just compare a players average against the average defense vs the opposing defense.

does that really work 4 u poooogs?

[Highness]

There's definitely some edge to be had here as the prop markets are so small the books seems content to just set the over/unders at season averages. Stephen Curry had his o/u at 17 the other night against Phoenix which is absurd when he has Nash guarding him and playing in a game with a very high pace

[Poogs]

does that really work 4 u poooogs?

it worked well enough last year to get me cut off mid season, but this year I haven't been having great results at all. I think I started too early in the season though, as theyre just starting to turn around now.

[subs]

poogs, hope it goes better 4 u man.

i didn't look 4 long enough, maybe 300 or so bets.

it didn't look good to me. + the only way of doing it properly (non poisson) was to get all the data not just the mean, pain in the ass.

do u scrape all the data for every player and game.

[shackfu99]

I have had more success with props than my plays. I always look at the the players season avg's and last 10 and 5 game avg's. Avg minutes played is key. Also what team he is playing and their def stats. Also trying to stay away from blowout games. Chances are your player's team can get up big and he sits more than normal.
some of the players I have had success with: David Lee GState. Almost all pt gaurds. Esp Westbrook and CPaul. Noah and rebounding plays.
Anyone playing the Kings,Wizards, Nuggets, Hornets and down the line. These are good starting points and then filter out from there.
They give up the most pts. Good luck and keep looking into the props , they have good value.

[luckypollok]

ROTOWORLD.COM is a great tool for getting player info on props. THE LUCKYPOLLOK