[mikew]

how would i calculate what the equivalent moneyline "should" be given a particular spread?

sbr has a calculator here, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/
but how can i verify its accuracy or check the results myself?

[Pancho sanza]

You need a large database of games with reliable closing lines.

Compare the relationship between winning the game outright and covering the spread at a given line.

[WWSports]

Here's my 2 cents worth. It's not worth much more, I'm sure.

I use the following as a guide for Favorites. (The underdog is more difficult to figure because of the 'hold' that each book uses.) This gives you a little guide as to who the book is favoring in the opening line. After it opens, it's the money that moves the lines.

SPREAD-MONEYLINE
Pick'em -110
0.5 -120
1 -130
1.5 -140
2 -150
2.5 -160
3 -170
3.5 -180
4 -190
4.5 -200
5 -210 etc. etc.

[cyberbabble]

Check the web site Wizard of odds > Sports Betting. He has the conversion numbers in a table so you can see what they all look like rather than the calculator which gives one conversion at a time.

[Cookie Monster]

To be more precise it should account the total. A -4 in a shutout is worth less than -4 in a low scoring game. A possible fine tuning would be the streakness of both teams. A consistently sucking +10 dog may get a higher moneyline than a +10 live dog.